torsdag 27 december 2012

Ett misstag som kostat -50%?

Var att gå in i Poseidon i IPS-depån på ca 3.30 CAD. Just nu i ca 1.68 CAD enligt Nordnet.

Yahoo Finance säger 3.22 CAD. Det verkar dock stämma med -50% idag.

Dubbelt så bra köpläge nu som förut?

Bolaget vidtar i alla fall självbevarande åtgärd med att strypa den höga utdelningen.

Poseidon Concepts-Forms Special Committee; Suspends Future Dividends and Announces Board and Managerial Changes


måndag 24 december 2012

Sprott fortsätter promota Silver

Why are (Smart) Investors Buying 50 Times More Physical Silver than Gold?

By: Eric Sprott

As long-time students of precious metals investing, there are certain things we understand. One is that, historically, the availability ratio of silver to gold has had a direct influence on the price of the metals. The current availability ratio of physical silver to gold for investment purposes is approximately 3:1. So, why is it that investors are allocating their dollars to silver at a much higher ratio? What is it that these “smart” investors understand? Let’s have a look at the numbers and see if it’s time for investors to do as a wise man once said and “follow the money.”
Average annual gold mine production is approximately 80 million ounces, which together with an estimated average 50 million ounces of annual recycled gold, totals around 130 million ounces available per year. In comparison, annual mined silver production has averaged around 750 million ounces, while recycled silver is estimated at 250 million ounces per year, which adds up to approximately 1 billion ounces. Using this data, there is roughly 8 times more silver available to buy than there is gold. However, not all gold and silver is available for investment purposes due to their use in industrial applications. It is estimated that for investment purposes (jewelry, bars and coins), the annual availability of gold is roughly 120 million ounces, and of silver it is 350 million ounces. Therefore, the ratio of physical silver availability to gold availability is 350/120, or ~3:1.1
Now, let’s examine how investors are allocating their investments between gold and silver. The data below is from the US Mint showing gold and silver sales in ounces:

torsdag 20 december 2012

RBC Capital Markets Price Target AUN 1.25 cad

Report on Aurcana

China’s Major Role in Silver Explained - Silver Investing News

China’s Major Role in Silver Explained
Tuesday December 18, 2012, 4:15am PST
By Michelle Smith - Exclusive to Silver Investing News

The structure of the silver industry in China is almost unrecognizable from the situation 20 years ago, a new report from Thomson Reuters GFMS states. In 1990, China was a relatively small player in silver. Now, the nation is responsible for 17 percent of global demand and produces 14 percent of the world’s silver. GFMS’ latest research reveals that China’s expanding role in the silver market has been driven by the liberalization of its silver industry and over a decade of economic growth.

After the revolution in 1949, gold and silver mining did not feature in the People’s Republic’s economic planning, GFMS explains. Investment in the industry was limited and private trading and personal ownership of the metals was forbidden.
China’s low level of silver production in the early 1980s raised concerns among State Council members, who decided that local production needed to expand in order to support industrialization and move the country toward self-sufficiency.

In 1983, regulations that covered the various aspects of the silver and gold industries, from production to export, were rolled out. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) was granted monopolistic authority to set prices and buy and sell silver.

That initiated the rise of China’s silver production, which resulted in China becoming a surplus producer by the end of the 1980s. Production surpluses continued in the 1990s, and by 1997, the PBOC realized state stocks were more than sufficient for China’s fabrication needs.

Authorities eventually came to see silver as a metal with which to test deregulation. Exploratory sales from state stocks began in 1998. In 2000, an official trading platform was designated and China’s monopoly on silver ended.

China’s silver supply

China is now the third-largest producer of silver after Peru and Mexico.

GFMS estimates that from 1998 to 2006, government stock sales totaled almost 350 million ounces (m/oz), more than 4 percent of global silver supply during that period. However, the firm confidently assumes that the PBOC has stopped selling silver as its stock levels are no longer “excessive.” Its remaining silver will play a role in diversifying China’s reserve portfolio away from US dollars, the firm notes.

Still, total supply has grown from 94.2 m/oz in 2002 to 281.5 m/oz in 2011, the firm reports.

This growth was largely the result of China’s decade-long GDP growth, which drove industrial development by averaging 10 percent annually. Rising commodity prices also accelerated exploration and development.

Mine production more than doubled during this time, increasing from 52.9 m/oz in 2002 to 104.6 m/oz in 2011. That growth is incidental as it was mostly due to China’s need to supply fabricators with base metals, GFMS explains. The volume of primary silver production in China is limited. 95 percent of its domestically mined silver originates as a by-product, mostly from lead-zinc deposits.

Despite this rapid supply growth, China experienced its first silver market deficit in 2002; that deficit grew to 23 m/oz in 2011. This gap has been filled in large part by hefty increases of imported base metal concentrates.

According to GFMS, since 2007, the largest source of silver supply in China has been base metals containing silver. Supply from that source increased from a mere 20.4 m/oz in 2002 to a peak of 150.3 m/oz in 2008.

China’s silver demand

GFMS states that China’s fabrication demand has grown about 12 percent per year from 2000 to 2011, representing a rise in offtake from 48.7 m/oz to 159.5 m/oz.

That is in stark contrast to the rest of the world, where fabrication demand has posted a double-digit fall over the same period, the report notes.

If China’s fabrication demand is viewed in segments, industrial demand is the largest slice. Within that segment, electrical and electronic applications represent the largest slice. Over the past decade, China has also become the world’s largest silver jewelry fabricator.

Growth in China’s investment demand is another notable development. With the liberalization of the market, Chinese investors’ participation has grown, elevating the nation from being “a marginal player just a few years ago … [to] the world’s leading market for both physical investment and paper trading” today.

An explosion in local precious metals purchases has been driven by macroeconomic conditions in China and abroad, states GFMS. For example, the firm explains that Chinese households have a great deal of cash savings that need to find a home. Yet the property market has been volatile and is now more heavily regulated, the stock market has seen heavy losses and interest rates on savings are close to zero in real terms.

Investment has traditionally been dominated by coins as silver bars were only made available in mid-2009. Last year, China accounted for 8 percent of global net purchases of these products.

Interest has also grown in silver contracts. The launch of silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) in May means that three exchanges now offer silver paper trading. GFMS notes that the SHFE has become an important commodity exchange for silver futures trading on a global basis, ranked only after the COMEX.

China silver outlook

As long as the outlook for economic growth in China remains positive, the nation is expected to continue playing a major role in the silver market.

Its use and production of base metals are slated for growth, which should result in an increase of by-product silver supply. GFMS also forecasts strong increases in production from primary sources as new projects are realized.

Growth in paper trading could be dramatic, the firm states. Further growth in coin and bar demand in upcoming years is expected as people place their trust in precious metals as a store of value and inflation hedge, notes the firm.

Urbanization and rising incomes also paint a bright picture for silver in China. As GFMS points out, the urban population only exceeded 50 percent in China for the first time last year. That compares to 80 percent in the countries that make up the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and presents a bullish case for demand growth for silver-bearing products.

onsdag 19 december 2012


Jag läste nyss Original Brailas blogginlägg om Poseidon "En fallande kniv för den spekulativt lagde"

Min idé att lägga årets 12000 på IPS-depå i Gold One ändrades därmed till att bli Poseidon då jag såg att kursen på kort tid backat från ca 15 cad och utdelningen till nuvarande kurs är häpnadsväckande 30%, på 0.09 cad/månad yield.

Så det blev ca 500 Poseidon ikväll på 3.23 cad

onsdag 12 december 2012


Not that anyone cares about resource stocks these days (they don’t pay dividends do they?) but Colossus Min- erals is a company with its super-rich Serra Pelada gold/ platinum/palladium mine that should be up and running within the next six months in Brazil. I say should be up and running by then because it certainly looks like they’ve got a lot of things already built and they are starting to take a bunch of analysts down to see it first hand.
We had hoped to go mid-January, but there is a wee bit of a trick to going to need visas and part of getting that visa means that you could be kissing your passport away for up to a month while it is sent to Brazil- ian authorities who examine the passport and then issue the visa after a rather significant payment. (If you are thinking of going to Rio’s Olympics or World Cup, make sure to get those visas!)
Seeing as we were in the ‘sick bay’ the last while, it looks like we won’t be going, but I suspect it is going to be an interesting tour for the analysts and observers that do get on board.
Today though, it’s big news is there’s some significant changes in management as Colossus announces that “David Anthony has been appointed President and COO. He is a mining engineer with more than 30 years of experi- ence in the business including nine years with Barrick Gold where he was responsible for the development of Bulyanhulu, Buzwagi and Tulawaka mines.”
Also significantly, Luis Albano Tondo has been ap- pointed VP Operations and Country Manager. In mining these days it is important to make sure that the locals are happy with what you are doing.
Meanwhile we look at a long list of analysts that love the story as Clarus Securities has a $12.50 Spec Buy; GMP Securities has an $11.50 Buy; RBC Capital Markets has an $8.00 Outperform target; Macquarie Securities has a $7.75 Outperform target and Dundee Securities has a $7.70 target. But no one seems to care...yet! Hey it is the resource sector no matter how rich this play might be.
Meanwhile Nicholas Campbell at Canaccord has an $11.00 target which he gets to by stating, “We continue to value the shares of Colossus based on a 0.75x multiple to our peak gold price estimate of NAVPS (7.5%,US$2000/oz Au) of C$14.51, which gives us a target price of C$11.00, unchanged.”

Väntan på Aurcana

Fortsätter pendla kring 1 CAD i en svag råvarumarknad och i väntan på PR om kommersiell produktion i Shafter-gruvan.

Q4 2012 är uppgett, senaste PR innehålle två nyrekryteringar, LN och Shafter, som visar hur man satsar hårt på båda gruvorna.

Bubbelvarning av BIS

Bloggare som tar upp att Centralbankernas Centralbank, BIS som varnat före kraschen 2008 nu varnar igen.

måndag 10 december 2012

Gammal PR från Endavour som visar potentialen i bolaget

VANCOUVER , Nov. 14, 2012 /CNW/ - Endeavour Mining Corporation ("Endeavour" or the "Corporation") (TSX:EDV, ASX:EVR, OTCQX:EDVMF) announces strong financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2012, including operating cash flow from Youga and Nzema mine operations of $40.7 million and production of 49,468 ounces of gold. The third quarter results do not include results from the Tabakoto mine, acquired via the Avion transaction subsequent to quarter end.
Neil Woodyer, CEO, stated
"Our Nzema and Youga mines have delivered another strong quarter of production and cash flow, with our 9 month production totaling over 152,000 ounces and generating $121 million of operating cash flow. Now that we have completed the Avion acquisition and added a third mine, Tabakoto, our full year 2012 gold production is expected to be approximately 300,000 ounces and our growth pipeline has expanded. We plan to complete the Tabakoto mill expansion during the first half of 2013, which is expected to increase Tabakoto gold production to approximately 150,000 ounces per year. In addition, Agbaou has achieved its first construction milestone as concrete pouring began this month. The Agbaou mine is on schedule to contribute an additional 100,000 ounces per year from early 2014."

söndag 9 december 2012

Aktuell portfölj dec 2012

Sålt av Semafo i samband med minskad produktion Q32012, tvingats minska i SIAF pga min höga belåning i Aurcana. Även tvingats minska lite i LUPE pga överbelåning uppstått. Thingats sälja av ca 300 Telia också pga överbelåning.

Kvar är
Ca 20 000 Aurcana
2700 SIAF
Lite LUPE, DetNor & PetroBras
Endeavour mining
& Lite Fortum och France Telecom

Det känns bra att behålla och hålla Aurcana-silver, Endeavour mining-guld och LUPE/DetNor/PetroBras-olja

Målet är att till så bra kurs som möjligt återköpa SIAF i kölvattnet av en förmodat kurshöjning av Aurcana i samband med PR om kommersiell produktion i Shafter.

Jag kommer även fortsätta bevaka Semafo, Bridge, Apogee silver, Wildcats Silver, Victoria gold, Lake shore gold, Avino och ElectroBras.

Framöver ska jag titta på vad som hänt med ElectroBras, kolla upp Lake shore gold närmare och följa upp Wildcat silver.

torsdag 6 december 2012

Aurcana och den höga belåningen

Jag avråder andra från samma höga belåning jag själv har. Dagens affärer exemplifierar att varningen är befogad.

På grund av nedgången i AUN f.n. Tvingandes jag igår halvera mitt innehav i SIAF, ett fint lågt värderat framtidsbolag jag verkligen tror på och en längre Tid ÖNSKAT men INTE KUNNAT öka i. Men jag gjorde en chansning och köpte ett tiden ill AUN dig för att hoppas kunna följa med upp igen och förhoppningsvis om jag ar tur med en högre kurs på Aurcana om några veckor kunna återköpa i SIAF.

Hur då?

Vi väntar på PR från Aurcana om att Shafter-gruvan ska vara i kommersiell produktion. Denna nyhet som ska komma nu i Q4 2012 borde höja Aurcana uppåt 1.1-1.3 i ett första skede, gissningsvis, utifrån nuvarande kurs på 0.98 CAD.

Då hoppa jag kunna återköpa SIAF, kanske även öka jämfört med innehavet före halveringen igår.

Brasilien och ElectroBras (EBR:NYSE)

Efter sett reportage idag i Metro om Brasiliens tillväxt på 2000-talet till världen 7: största ekonomi och prognosen om att bli väldens 5:e största ekonomi framöver.

Där det ingår satsningar på Afrika, och inte minst olja.

Beslöt jag mig för att återigen checka av ElectroBras, som vekrade billig på drygt 6 USD men nu tydligtvis halverats på sista tiden.

Kort kommentar och reklam för mer info

4. Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras (EBR) is one of the companies pushing the Utilities sector lower today. As of noon trading, Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras is down $0.16 (-4.8%) to $3.26 on light volume Thus far, 521,245 shares of Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras exchanged hands as compared to its average daily volume of 1.5 million shares. The stock has ranged in price between $3.20-$3.29 after having opened the day at $3.23 as compared to the previous trading day's close of $3.42. Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A. Eletrobras, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity in Brazil. Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras has a market cap of $5.3 billion and is part of the utilities industry. Shares are down 64.4% year to date as of the close of trading on Tuesday. Currently there are no analysts that rate Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras a buy, 2 analysts rate it a sell, and none rate it a hold.TheStreet Ratings rates Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras as a hold. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, attractive valuation levels and good cash flow from operations. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including unimpressive growth in net income, a generally disappointing performance in the stock itself and poor profit margins. Get the full Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras Ratings Report now.

Dave Pescods Late Edition om Canacol Energy

some positive news out of Canacol En- ergy...just try and not look at the chart. Canacol announced yesterday they are pleased to announce “the results of its Agueda 1 ST exploration well on the Labrador prospect on the LLA23 Exploration and Production ("E&P") Contract, located immediately to the north of the Corporation's Ran- cho Hermoso field in the Llanos Basin of Colombia. Unlike the Rancho Hermoso field, which is governed by contracts with Ecopetrol S.A., the LLA23 contract is governed by the Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos, which receives a vari- able base royalty beginning in an 8% related to gross pro- duction resulting in 2-3 times better netbacks and reserve valuations than those available under the Rancho Hermoso tariff and non-tariff contracts. The Corporation has an 80% operated working interest in the LLA23 contract.”
They also add, “A production test of the Lower Gacheta reservoir yielded 1,832 barrels of gross oil per day(1,466 barrels of net oil per day for Canacol) of 28 degree API light oil.”
Meanwhile, the analysts seem to be confused these days—just like everyone else as in the last brief while TD Securities has cut their target on Canacol to $0.85 from $0.95; CIBC has just upped the stock to sector perform with a $0.40 target, up from $0.35; and Mackie Research ups their target to $1.35 from $1.25. One of them might be right.

tisdag 4 december 2012

Intressant forskningsbolag under Vator Capitals paraply

Xbrane Bioscience:s proteinproduktionssystem Lemo, har blivit utnämnt till december månads ”Technical highlight of the month” av, som är ett samarbete mellan Protein Structure Initiative och tidskriften Nature.

Utmärkelsen är ett stort erkännande och beskriver närmare hur Lemos unika egenskaper möjliggör framställningen av olika membranproteiner. Siavash Bashiri, nytillträdd vd för Xbrane Bioscience, ser artikeln som ett användbart skyltfönster mot forskarvärlden.

– Nature är världens mest citerade vetenskapliga tidskrift och räknas till de mest ansedda inom sin nisch. Att bli utsedd till ”technical higlight of the month” är naturligtvis en kvalitetsstämpel och en värdefull referens i vårt framtida arbete, säger Siavash Bashiri.

Starkt förenklat har problembilden tidigare bestått i att forskare endast har kunnat slå på eller av proteinproduktionen i en E. coli-bakterie. Lemo kan liknas vid en dimmer som möjliggör finjustering av produktionshastigheten, vilket innebär att framställningen går att anpassa efter varje enskild proteintyp för att nå maximala produktionsförhållanden.

– Membranproteiner brukar benämnas som ”svåra” proteiner eftersom de är komplicerade eller omöjliga att framställa i vanliga produktionssystem. Det orsakar stora problem för många läkemedelsbolag som är beroende av dessa proteiner i sin forskning. Nu när de ser möjligheterna att producera membranproteiner i vårt system kommer bolagen också vilja testa att framställa sina andra proteiner med vår plattform, säger Siavash Bashiri.

Xbrane Bioscience för i dagsläget dialog med befintliga kunder och flera nya intressenter, främst läkemedelsbolag, som ser potentialen i företagets produkter och nyttan i att få tillgång till kompetensen i team Xbrane.

– Vi ser över en lösning som ska uppfylla bolagens behov ur alla aspekter och effektivisera deras proteinproduktion. Genom att erbjuda en skalbar, kvalitativ och heltäckande servicemodell kring framställning av proteiner, positionerar vi Xbrane Bioscience som en attraktiv aktör på marknaden, med förutsättningar att ansvara för hela proteinproduktionsprocessen, säger Siavash Bashiri.

Jeffrey Gundlach, who sees bleak financial times ahead, is the co-founder of DoubleLine Capital.

Fifty billion dollars still sounds like a bunch of money to us. Of course in a day and age when big money managers can attract as much as a trillion dollars, that kind of puts it into perspective.
Bloomberg spent a lot of time this weekend looking at Jeffrey Gundlach and Bloomberg known for its quick/short articles, spent the equivalent of 12 pages on this individ- ual, so obviously there are some people listening to this investor who has made some very interesting calls over the last few years. Like buying mortgage-backed securi- ties right at the bottom of the collapse in housing in the United States.
Gundlach is basically saying that down the road, infla- tion will be back and hard assets will benefit...and for many of us in the beaten up natural gas sector, some of what he is saying sounds a little hopeful to us.
Bloomberg writes, “The co-founder and chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital LP explains that the first phase of the coming debacle consisted of a 27-year buildup of corporate, personal and sovereign debt. That lasted until 2008, when unfettered lending finally toppled banks and pushed the global economy into a recession, spurring governments and central banks to spend trillions of dollars to stimulate growth...”
“In the ominous third phase” Bloomberg writes, Gund- lach is predicting another crisis: “Deeply indebted coun- tries and companies, which Gundlach doesn’t name, will default sometime after 2013. Central banks may forestall these defaults by pumping even more money into the economy -- at the risk of higher inflation in coming years.”
“Gundlach doesn’t know when the third phase will get here, but he tells his audience they need to gradually get ready for it.”
And again, his whole suggestion is some day, the mar- kets just go—kaboom and you want to be, he suggests, in certain sectors.
He recommends buying hard assets. Gemstones, Art and Commercial Real Estate are high on his list and in his DoubleLine Fund, has also been buying the stocks of Chi- nese companies, U.S. natural gas producers and gold- mining firms because it considers them to be bargains.
If you have time, Google, “Bond Investor Gundlach buys stocks, sees kaboom ahead.”

måndag 3 december 2012

Sino Agro Food ett steg närmare OMX Nasdaq First North

Man har utnämt EPB till financial advisor

söndag 2 december 2012

Jämförelse av värdering av Silverbolagen & APE

Taget från Apogee Silvers november presentation

Apogee Silver (APE:TSV)

Jag ligger själv som bekant tung i Aurcana, äger inga Avino för tillfället men efter Aurcana är Avino silver and goldmines det silverbolag som jag är mest positiv till och sugen att ta in i portföljen.

Arian Silver har jag spanat på men valt bort för Aurcana, men Arian förefaller vara ett prisvärt köp med verksamheten i Mexico, har inte full koll på deras ekonomi just nu dock.

För den som vill ta mindre risk men tror på silver framöver är First Majestic förmodligen det klockrena köpet, om inte Aurcana förstås.

Apogee silver är lågt värderat, men det kan förklaras av den höga politiska risken i Bolivia.
Bear Creek har för nåt år sedan fått tillgångar konfiskerade av Bolivias regering.

Det är fullt möjligt att Apogee får behålla sina tillgångar så länge de förblir av "mindre betydelse" ur ett nationellt mining-perspektiv. Säg att politiken förändrats om ett antal år och företaget enl. plan uppnått fullskalig produktion 2014-2015

France Telecom utdelning historiskt & framöver

På grund av dålig marknad i år och nästa år har man bestämt en minimum utdelning på 0.8 USD, dvs lite drygt 8% för 2013-2014

Utdelningen var mer än dubblan för 2012: nästan 1.8 USD

France Telecom tror på vändning åter till tillväxt 2014. Jag behåller mina France Telecom som nu ligger ca -20%, och kommer köpa mer om kursen faller överdrivet mycket.

Historiken är också bra, åren 1998-2012:

Yahoo Finance - Historisk utdelning 

DateOpenHighLowCloseVolumeAdj Close*
Sep 4, 20120.709 Dividend
Jun 5, 20121.049 Dividend
Aug 31, 20110.85 Dividend
Jun 7, 20111.169 Dividend
Aug 25, 20100.794 Dividend
Jun 9, 20101.015 Dividend
Aug 25, 20090.848 Dividend
May 28, 20091.12 Dividend
Sep 8, 20080.883 Dividend
May 29, 20081.891 Dividend
Jun 4, 20071.631 Dividend
May 5, 20061.244 Dividend
May 31, 20050.606 Dividend
May 5, 20040.299 Dividend
Apr 15, 20040.683 Dividend
Apr 15, 20032.756 Dividend
Mar 26, 20030.21 Dividend
May 30, 20020.912 Dividend
Jun 12, 20010.86 Dividend
Jun 20, 20000.953 Dividend
Jun 15, 20000.218 Dividend
Jun 15, 19991.033 Dividend
Dec 7, 19980.23 Dividend
Jun 15, 19981.07 Dividend