måndag 11 februari 2013

Aurcana utökar La Negra och hittat lite guldhalter

Aurcana har släppt PR (se länk nedan för PDF) med info om man hittat lite guldhalter förutom Silver-, zink- och blyhalter Nordväst och Nordöst om La Negra gruvan.

Mr. Lenic Rodriguez, Aurcana’s President & CEO, states:" We are very pleased to report today significant exploration results and new discoveries at La Negra. The presence of gold associated with strong silver, zinc and lead values in new areas tested is very encouraging. While historically gold production has not been a major source of revenue at La Negra, and the potential economic significance of these results is not known, these results are of strong interest to us. The ramp-up at Shafter, increase in mining capacity at La Negra and excellent exploration results, are indeed exciting times for Aurcana."


Zona Aurifera I, returned strong assay values including: o 15.3 gm/t Au and 261 gm/t Ag;

o 12 gm/t Au and 105 gm/t Ag;

o 10.0 gm/t Au and 381 gm/t Ag;

Zona Aurifera II also returned strong assay values including: o 2.8 gm/t Au and 229 gm/t Ag;

o 2.4 gm/t Au and 307 gm/t Ag;

Observera speciellt de avslutande orden i nyheten:
"The potential for extensions of these resources in the upper portion of the mountain and the deep extensions have not been pursued since Aurcana acquired the property. As such, these results are seen to be a step towards recognizing the greater potential of the La Negra mineralized zones."

Bolaget tror alltså att detta tyder på att La Negra i själva verket kan vara mycket större än vad den nu är uppmätt. Att detta är ett första steg mot att avtäcka den större potentialen hos La Negra.

Aurcana news release - 11-02-2013

söndag 10 februari 2013

Trader Dan - mycket bra inlägg om ekonominska krisen

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet - A Proxy for US Equity Markets

If there are still any skeptics left out there who DO NOT BELIEVE that the entire stock market rally from its low made back in late 2008, has been engineered by the Federal Reserve, then please examine the following chart I have constructed using the data from the Fed's own site which provides a weekly glimpse into their balance sheet.

Note that I am only using the total of their Securities holdings and not the entirety of the data that goes into constructing the overall size of the balance sheet. In other words, I am excluding loans from the Discount Window, swaps and other assets that go into making up the entirety of their available credit. In other words, I am being "conservative". If you take those other factors into account, the size of the balance sheet of the Fed is already over $3 TRILLION!

Even at this, it still provides a very compelling picture of why US equities continue to plumb new highs nearly month after month in spite of the anemic at best growth in the underlying economy.
I maintain that the Fed has engineered one of the most massive bouts of INFLATION in the STOCK MARKET since its inception a century ago. Can you see the connection between the overall size of the Fed's Balance Sheet and the level of the S&P 500?
This is by design of course since in our new, modern age of ignorance, these monetary wizards believe that they can create lasting prosperity by forcing untold amounts of freshly minted liquidity into stocks jamming those prices higher and thereby influencing consumer sentiment. A rising stock market provides cover for all manner of other economic woes, and political woes, I might add. The low information citizen takes one look over at the DOW or the S&P 500 and then falsely assumes that all is well with the world and then goes about his or her business without delving any deeper into these matters. This is of course further propagated by the blind lemmings who constitute the majority of analysts out there on financial TV who breathlessly talk about the wonderful rally in stocks heralding the beginning of solid, sustained economy vitality. Idiots! (Sorry, I could not help myself on this one).
The opposite is true when stock prices are collapsing. Consumers begin to move from concern, to worry, to fear and to outright panic and then most worrisome to the elites, anger as they look for scapegoats.
As I have stated many times now on this site, if it was this easy to create prosperity, it would have been figured out a long, long time ago by previous generations, which unlike this current one, were actually capable of critical analysis. Let's call this current Federal Reserve strategy: "PROSPERITY IN A BOTTLE". It is akin to a cologne for men. Just splash some on and forego the shower for the time being as the aroma masks the smell from a day's perspiration.
What the Fed has done is to cover up the stench from the debt overload and rampant speculation its policies have created in our financial system. The deeply-rooted structural issues have been left unblemished in their vigor.
Do not forget this one thing - ultra low interest rates benefit TWO GROUPS at the EXPENSE OF SAVERS.
FIRST - the borrower  and
SECOND - the large speculator/hedge fund which borrows money for basically no cost and then LEVERAGES that money in speculative bets. Where do you think all that liquidity that the Fed has shoved into the marketplace has gone???? the answer - into equities!
Lastly, here is one more look at the level of the S&P 500 seen through the prism of gold. First look at the S&P in NOMINAL TERMS. Note that the Fed's machinations have jammed it to within a whisker's breadth of its all time CLOSING HIGH made back in late 2007 just before the bottom dropped out of the index and it lost 50% of its value over the next year and a half. "Wonderful, Superb, Splendid, Impressive" all are adjectives being used to describe the "recovery" in stock prices. 
Now take a look at the same chart when the price level of the S&P 500 index is compared to the value of one ounce of gold. Note that "recovery" seen in the nominal index off the 2009 low doesn't seem like all that much now does it? Translation from all this - Fed induced RAMPANT INFLATION OF PAPER ASSETS; nothing more. Traders of course can go with the flow of money into equities as long as they do not mistake this equity rally as the herald of a new era of lasting prosperity. When the music finally does stop, and the players rush to find their chairs, many are going to be left standing looking for a place to sit and coming up empty. 

fredag 8 februari 2013

Gårdagens Late edition om guld i Sydafrika

Last year we saw the immense magnitude of fiscal irre- sponsibility from the majority of government’s which caused immense market turmoil. This year, investors are looking to these governments as to how they will eliminate, or at least slow down, the degree of deterioration happen- ing, specifically getting their debt levels under control. Lit- tle’s been done by any of them, be they in Europe or the US as it has been mostly chatter to date.
With all the money governments are printing, gold bugs have been disappointed that the price of gold has not cata- pulted into the $2000 to $3000 range or higher. When you look at the 5 year chart, gold has been a great hedge against the markets, just not as much as the gold bugs would like as conspiracy theories abound. Now if you have invested in gold companies, you have truly been disappointed as they have in no way mirrored what gold has done as these charts show. Standard issues mining companies face include con- trolling costs, commodity price fluctuations and environ- mental issues to name but a few

(T-IMG) $8.74 +0.09 (T-SMF) $2.83 -0.03 (T-ORE) $1.58 -0.04 (V-RVS) $0.425 -0.01 (V-AGG) $0.17 -0.015 (T-VTR) $0.40 -0.02

One area of the world that used to be a hot bed for gold was Africa and African gold companies will likely continue to face severe challenges...where’s the bottom?
Mining industry big-wigs gather in Cape Town, South Africa this week between Feb 4th to 7th for the 19th an- nual “African Mining Indaba”, billed as the “world’s larg- est mining investment conference.” There will be a lot of discussion on social and environmental issues, so much so, due to the recent deterioration of conditions, the final day of the event is devoted to this.
According to US broker JP Morgan (JPM), Africa’s mining industry (specifically the South) is in crisis with its gold producers facing another tough year.

In an overview of the sector this past Monday, JPM said it can see few catalysts for a rise in the valuations of major South African gold miners even though it expects the price of gold to rise steadily over the year.

There’s a migration out of South Africa towards West Africa, even though it’s more virgin territory. While the grade of the gold in West Africa is not as high as in South Africa, there are other big advantages. Government rela- tions are better, labour conflicts are fewer, taxes and roy- alties are often lower and costs are more predictable.
Mining production in South Africa is falling steeply with a 13-per-cent decline last year alone and new inves- tors are looking to West Africa instead. Burkina Faso (West Africa) has a reputation for political stability with the same authoritarian government in power since 1987. But there could be cracks in that stability.
JPM expects the gold price to trade up toward $1,800/ oz by mid-year and average US$1,763 over the year. When we asked our Nicholas Campbell what his thoughts were on a recent report from Credit Suisse that discussed, “Gold, the end of an era?” he doesn’t buy it. Nicholas tells us, “I don’t really think it is an end of the era for gold. If anything, we continue to see everybody trying to devalue their currencies and that should be supportive for gold.
The other thing is Central Banks continue to be signifi- cant net buyers of gold and again, that’s going to have an impact in the gold market. There is a lot of physical gold that’s going to get moved around in the next year or so, as an example, you have Germany repatriating all or most of its gold. That suggests to me that gold is in demand. Now can gold go down? Absolutely it can. Are we going to see new highs this year? I don’t know, but generally speaking the whole reason why we’ve been bullish on gold has been because of the amount of money that’s been pumped into the system.
The other aspect is obviously the devaluation of cur- rencies in general and improved outlook for gold as an alternative currency which I think is supported by the Central Banks continuing to add to their holdings.

Some African specific issues include:
• “He who has the biggest gun has the power”. This is why one of my clients in the Canadian military won’t go near anything associated with Africa after spend- ing time there. It’s amazing how many African states/ territories are currently involved in a war or experi- encing post-war conflict and tension. The one getting most of the news of late is France battling to weed out al-Qaeda & its allies out of Mali. Last we checked, out of the 54 recognized states/territories in Africa, at least 17 were involved in some kind of war or conflict. • Over 30 South African gold companies, including big names such as AngloGold Ashanti, Goldfields and Harmony Gold, face class action litigation that alleges they knew of the dangers posed to miners by silica dust for more than a century.
• Deadly strikes left 44 dead at Lonmin's Marikana platinum mine in South Africa highlight "structural problems" in the country which could damage investment, Fitch rating agency said.
It all makes you wonder why one would consider working/investing in Africa. Oh yes, greed...is there an opportunity staring right at us in all this turmoil?

onsdag 6 februari 2013

CPM group tror på lägre silverpris fram till 2022

CPM Group: Lower Prices and the Potential Bull Trap1

CPM Group: Lower Prices and the Potential Bull Trap6

CPM Group has made some assessments about the silver market that many investors will not like. The firm recently updated7 its Silver Long-Term Outlook, which gazes out to 2022, presenting an argument for weaker silver prices over that period. The firm also released a report8 that suggests many investors may currently be at risk of getting caught in a bull trap.
Silver has been trending lower since April 2011, when “hype” pushed prices to $49, according to CPM Group. Prices plunged the following month and have traded between $26 and $36 since September 2011.
Recently, silver has not performed as many market participants insist that it should. The strong price action that is supposed to be seen at times of heightened economic risk has often failed to materialize. But some market observers continue to hypothesize that silver prices will head higher, CPM Group’s report states.

Long-term silver outlook
Silver investors were net sellers for well over a decade. CPM Group notes that since 2006, economic and financial crises have fueled interest and investors have been net buyers.
“The single most important question facing future silver prices is how much silver investors will want to buy going forward — or whether they might revert to long-term selling as they did only a few years ago,” the firm said.
CPM Group claims to have identified several emerging trends in the market that could result in wobbly investment demand over the next decade and may weigh on prices going forward. Using this information, the firm makes a case for lower silver prices over the next decade.
Its assessment points to developments that have reduced silver demand over the past decade, including higher silver prices and technological advancements such as digital imaging and smaller electronic components. There is also the possibility that a substantial amount of silver mine production capacity may be added over the next 10 years.

Beware of the silver bull trap
In a recent market note, CPM Group addressed the current state of the silver market, warning that seasonal strength could result in a bull trap.
In early January, silver could be found below $30. Moderate price increases seen later in the month, together with marketing hype, reignited bullish sentiment among some investors, the firm said.
Peddling concern about a supply shortage is one of the tactics that these “marketing hypesters” are using. To help lend credibility to their story, they point to the fact that the US Mint temporarily suspended10 the sale of the 2013 Silver Eagles after the coins sold out last month. Once sales recommenced, January ended with 7,498,000 coins sold. That all-time monthly high provides fodder for the portrayal of the marketplace as raging with demand for physical silver.
CPM Group notes that it was all simply a ripple effect. The Mint estimates annual production. Last year, fiscal cliff talks sparked a surge in demand that was especially notable in November. When December rolled around, the 2012 Silver Eagle sold out. The 2013 coin was then released into a market with pent-up demand, so it too sold out.
CPM Group points to an ample supply of good delivery bars to meet surging purchases by ETFs and COMEX-registered depositories. The firm notes that there was a 19.4-million-ounce increase in silver ETFs on January 16. Yet there were no delivery disruptions reported.
“All of this talk about a shortage of silver is irrational and not supported by readily available market data,” the report states.
Silver is produced in 242 mines located in 38 countries, the firm notes. Furthermore, the firm calculates that 27 billion ounces of silver exist above ground. 90 percent is held by individuals in forms such as jewelry, silverware and decorative items. The balance is in the form of investment products. All of this metal is theoretically available for sale to investors.
“Conspiracy theorists” try to get listeners to imagine scenarios that CPM Group suggests are quite far fetched. Popular among them is a situation where all investors demand delivery of the silver they hold through ETFs, banks and futures contracts.
While CPM Group admits that this “unlikely phenomenon would obviously push prices higher,” the firm also points out that such a scenario implies a situation where the market is devoid of sellers.
“This is why every bubble has burst, because at some point, those buyers become sellers.”
The firm warns that extreme scenarios concocted by silver marketing groups should never be the basis for rational investing.

Short-term silver outlook
Seasonal strengths in investment and fabrication demand pushed prices higher in January and some other factors could drive prices up later in February. But they are minor and do not represent convincing justifications for expectations that prices will rise significantly higher in the longer term, the firm believes.
Between now and March, prices could reach the $34 to $36 level. CPM Group notes that there is often an elevated level of congestion in the market ahead of COMEX March futures expiry, a result of seasonal demand strength.
“Should a run up in prices occur before this period, silver prices could drop shortly thereafter, possibly toward $26,” the firm said.

Securities Disclosure: I, Michelle Smith, do not hold equity interests in any of the companies mentioned in this article.


tisdag 5 februari 2013

Presentation av NGEx på näringslivets hus

CEO på NGEx genomgång av bolagets februari 2013 presentation som också redan borde finnas tillgänglig på bolagets hemsida.

3 guld-koppar projekt
1. Los Helados i Chile
2. Josemaria i Argentina
3. Filo del Sol på gränsen mellan Chile/Argentina

Bolaget gjorde en finansiering för ca 1 månad sedan, så man har 40 mcad i kassan.

Bra infrastruktur runt alla tre upptäckterna.

Los Helados:

stor fyndighet av guld-silver-koppar men med låg halt. 11 moz guld, 100 moz silver, 8 miljoner ton koppar (0,42% koppar).
Mineraliseringen är öppen åt alla håll samt på djupet.


Likadant här låg grads fyndighet. 7,5 moz guld, 3,5 Miljoner ton koppar (0,38% koppar)

Filo del Sol:

I ett tidigare stadie än de andra två. Ingen uppskattning av resurserna än.
Några borrhål från 2012 med 97.6 m @ 1,45% koppa och 36 m @ 393,7 g/ton Au


Northland verkar körd nu

Northland ställer in emissioner

Publicerad 2013-02-05 09:21:00
Aktie Gruvbolaget Northland Resources föll cirka 30 procent i den inledande handeln i Oslo på tisdagen. Detta sedan bolaget meddelat att det har beslutat att ställa in den tidigare aviserade aktieemissionen på 250 miljoner dollar och även obligationsemissionen på 125 miljoner dollar.

Bolaget fortsätter att samtala med investerare, inklusive obligationsinnehavare, kreditgivare och andra aktieägare, för att kunna presentera en hållbar långsiktig finansiell lösning, heter det i ett pressmeddelande.
"Det har blivit tydligt för bolaget och dess rådgivare Arctic Securities och Pareto Securities att bolaget inte är i en ställning att kunna slutföra emissionerna vid utgången av teckningsperioden", skriver Northland.
Northland skriver vidare att det kommer att uppdatera marknaden när mer information inkommer.
Bolagets styrelseordförande Anders Hvide avböjer att kommentera pressmeddelandet när norska nyhetsbyrån TDN Finans når honom:
"Nu har du fått pressmeddelandet. Utöver det har vi ingen kommentar", säger han och lägger sedan på luren.

Artikeln - Northland ställer in emissioner

Ja Northland verkar körd. Läste på nåt forum kommentarer att Avanza var stor nettoköpare runt Northlands utbombade nivå på ca 0,6 nok. Kursen nu är 0,73 med dagslägsta 0,52 NOK.

Jag skulle själv inte ta i Northland med tång just nu, men det beror till största del på att jag bränt mig på småbolag i Canada, likt Northland, fast ädelmetaller som Cream Minerals. Och den stora belåningen gör att jag inte har pengar för Northland ens om jag ville, vilket jag inte vill ens.

En viktig poäng är att det som ser billigt ut kan vara dyrt. Det gäller att kunna räkna på situationen, som nu i fallet Northland, hur stor blir utspädningen om de får ihop en nyemission, till vilken kurs kommer en eventuell nyemission att göras, vilket järnmalmspris räknar man nu med framöver och hur mycket har kostnaderna för projektet ökat. Det gäller att kunna räkna hem åtminstone en långsikt investering. Självklart kan det gå att göra snabba korta trades på Northland nu men då bör man vara erfaren för att lyckas.

måndag 4 februari 2013

Notis att hedgefond gått in i CDON

CDON har fått en ny storägare. Hedgefonden Point Lobos Capital har ökat sitt innehav i CDON till cirka 6,8 miljoner aktier, vilket innebär en cornerposition i CDON.  Kinnevik är största ägare med knappt 25 procent av kapital och röster. Ett rykte nyligen gjorde gällande att Kinnevik skulle lägga ett bud på CDON, men först efter en vinstvarning för 2013. Aktien slutade dagen på 33,20 kronor, en uppgång om 0,3 procent. Som lägst betalades aktien till 32,20 kronor.

Tillväxtländer 2013-2017 rankat av Bloomberg Market Magazine

Bloomberg Market Magazine har rankat de 20 hetaste tillväxtländerna utifrån ett dussintal kriterier.
Det handlar bland annat om de finansiella marknaderna, tillväxt, hur lätt det är för utländska investerare att göra affärer och hur utbredd korruptionen är i länderna.
Man har också tittat på läskunnighet, demografi och ländernas arbetsmarknad.

Även statsskuld och inflation togs med i beräkningarna och när allt summerades togs ett betyg mellan 0 och 100 fram.
Inte oväntat finns många asiatiska länder på listan. I topp ligger Kina som väntas ha en total tillväxt på 45,9 procent de kommande fyra åren.
På andra plats finns Sydkorea följt av Thailand.
Peru är det latinamerikanska land som hamnar högst upp på listan med en förväntad tillväxt på 27,4 procent. Det sammanlagda betyget blir 58,1.

På femte plats ligger Tjeckien som hamnar högst av alla europeiska länder medan Turkiet hamnar på en sjundeplats.
På 13:e och 14:e plats börjar det bli riktigt exotiskt med Namibia och Zambia som därmed faktiskt hamnar före Sydafrika som ligger på listans 15:e plats.

* Förväntad total tillväxt 2013-2017.


fredag 1 februari 2013

Börsen ska sjunka med -60% enligt Harry Dent

Den ekonomiske prognosmakaren Harry Dent har nyligen gjort ännu en ödesdiger förutsägelse och investerarkollektivet bör hoppas på att han har fel. Harry Dent, en bästsäljande författare som också ger ut en rad finansiella nyhetsbrev säger att han ser en krasch på den amerikanska aktiemarknaden som kommer att börja under det tredje kvartalet i år och sedan fortsätta i ett och ett halvt år.

Dent hävdar att fastigheter och aktier vid slutet av 2014 kommer att ha sjunkit med mer än 60 procent, vilket skulle föra Dow Jones indexet till en nivå som understiger 6.000, att jämföra med de 13860.58 som detta index stängde på den 31 januari. Enligt Dent kommer detta att innebära att USA då kommer att vara nästintill bankrutt.
Det är bland annat demografiska förändringar på den amerikanska kontinenten och USAs skuldkris som anses vara de främsta drivkrafterna för en kommande krasch. Dent anser vidare att om det inte varit för FEDs interventioner och ekonomiska stimulans så skulle aktiemarknaden redan ha kollapsat för länge sedan

Semafo på årslägsta

Vad som hänt i Semafo är
  • Problem i Nigeria där man har en mindre gruva
  • Ökade Cash-cost för 2013
  • Minskad prognos för produktion av guld 2013 jämfört med 2012

Då är frågan om det snart kan vara dags för bottenfiske?

För är att kursen förmodligen kommer studsa upp nu eller efter en snar botten, då kan det vara läge att sälja på rekyl uppåt om inte problemen i Nigeria löst sig

Mot är att Semafo inte förefaller vara det billigaste guldbolaget trots att man ligger på årslägsta. Jämför man med Endeavour (EDV.TO) som värderas till ungefär samma marknadsvärde men med en produktion 2012 på ca 310.000 Oz jämfört med Semafos 230-240 000 Oz