Guiden är på engelska i PDF-format.
Jag har själv investerat lite småslantar i silver på sista tiden. Avvaktar med intresse ett köp i guld-bolaget Endeavour mining.
Visar inlägg med etikett Silverbolag. Visa alla inlägg
Visar inlägg med etikett Silverbolag. Visa alla inlägg
onsdag 8 april 2015
tisdag 7 april 2015
Aurcana update
Silverproducenten Aurcana som jag ägde för några år sedan är kursmässigt utbombad, men av goda skäl. Bolaget blöder, och trots en silverproduktion på ca 3,7 MOz Silverekvivalenter för 2014 gick man med en väsentlig förlust. Detta på grund av att kostnaden per Oz silver var ca 16,45 usd vilket är runt spot-priset för silver.
Enligt MDA för Q3 2014 så räcker pengarna på banken + övriga tillgångar till att finansiera bolaget till och med september 2015. Sen måste bolaget få in nya pengar eller vända till positivt kassaflöde från silverproduktionen.
Jag fortsätter hålla koll på Aurcana vid sidan av silverpriset.
Aurcana skulle kunna gå en KK till mötes eller om någonting ändras till bolagets fördel så skulle bolaget snabbt kunna flerdubblas.
Enligt MDA för Q3 2014 så räcker pengarna på banken + övriga tillgångar till att finansiera bolaget till och med september 2015. Sen måste bolaget få in nya pengar eller vända till positivt kassaflöde från silverproduktionen.
Jag fortsätter hålla koll på Aurcana vid sidan av silverpriset.
Aurcana skulle kunna gå en KK till mötes eller om någonting ändras till bolagets fördel så skulle bolaget snabbt kunna flerdubblas.
lördag 8 februari 2014
4 intressanta Silverproducenter
At last month’s Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (VRIC), Jordan Roy-Byrne6, publisher of The Daily Gold, gave a presentation titled Best Gold & Silver Stocks for 2014.
Alexco Resource
SilverCrest Mines
Almaden Minerals
Primero Mining
Se artikeln - här
Alexco Resource
SilverCrest Mines
Almaden Minerals
Primero Mining
Se artikeln - här
torsdag 19 december 2013
Aurcanas Shafter gruva läggs på is
Där kom den!
Aurcanas Shafter gruvan läggs i Malpåsen - Aurcana's Shafter Project to be Placed on Care and Maintenance
"The Aurcana Board of Directors, after careful consideration and review of the development and mining options for the Shafter Project under current economic conditions and low silver prices, has elected to put the Shafter Project on "care and maintenance"
"Aurcana is planning to initiate an exploration program designed to test targets within Shafter's known mineralized areas in further detail, to help determine whether additional higher grade mineralization can be delineated. Aurcana geologists have identified areas of interest to justify such a program."
Lenic Rodriguez, Aurcana's President and CEO, states "Aurcana's management and its board of directors are very disappointed that in spite of many of our employees' best efforts, the prevailing economic conditions, in particular low silver prices, have caused the Company to suffer significant losses from the Shafter Project's operations, resulting in an unsustainable drain on the Company's treasury. We wish to thank all our employees and stakeholders for their efforts and support."
As a result of the decision to place the Shafter Project on care and maintenance, the Company has determined that it will not immediately proceed with the planned updated resource estimate on the Shafter Project which was referenced in the Company's news release dated December 12, 2013.
Aurcanas Shafter gruvan läggs i Malpåsen - Aurcana's Shafter Project to be Placed on Care and Maintenance
"The Aurcana Board of Directors, after careful consideration and review of the development and mining options for the Shafter Project under current economic conditions and low silver prices, has elected to put the Shafter Project on "care and maintenance"
"Aurcana is planning to initiate an exploration program designed to test targets within Shafter's known mineralized areas in further detail, to help determine whether additional higher grade mineralization can be delineated. Aurcana geologists have identified areas of interest to justify such a program."
Lenic Rodriguez, Aurcana's President and CEO, states "Aurcana's management and its board of directors are very disappointed that in spite of many of our employees' best efforts, the prevailing economic conditions, in particular low silver prices, have caused the Company to suffer significant losses from the Shafter Project's operations, resulting in an unsustainable drain on the Company's treasury. We wish to thank all our employees and stakeholders for their efforts and support."
As a result of the decision to place the Shafter Project on care and maintenance, the Company has determined that it will not immediately proceed with the planned updated resource estimate on the Shafter Project which was referenced in the Company's news release dated December 12, 2013.
Aurcana uppdate & kommentar kring bloggens ändrade fokus
Efter större nedgång redan skett är Aurcana ner ca 26% idag. och har idag varit nere på nytt årslägsta och flera års lägsta på 0,73 usd.
Vad har hänt i Aurcana?
- Silverpriset har sjunkit
- Grades har sjunkit i La Negra i Mexico
- Shafter ha krånglat
- Minskade resurser/reserver i Shafter
Allt som allt har Aurcana brakat ihop. Jag är inte säker på att det är köpläge heller. Jag avvaktar med att gå in i PM-bolagen just nu, jag behåller bara den ytterst lilla post jag redan har sen gammalt i Endeavour Mining. Men om man tror på Guld och/eller Silver just nu så finns det nog mycket bättre bolag än Aurcana att investera i, Aurcana har verkligen svikit sina ägare och investerare. Man höll tyst ett bra tag i början innan man började meddela att det var problem vid Shafter, problem som sedan dess bara växt till att nu innebära att det finns mindre silver i Shafter-gruvan än man tidigare trott. Att det samtidigt gått dåligt med grades i La Negra i Mexico gör att Aurcanas finanser blivit riktigt dåliga till det fallande silverpriset...
Det är tråkigt det som hänt. Lärdomen är väl att det kan ändras, det kan gå fort, att något överraskar positivt eller negativt när det gäller guld och silver bolag som prospekterar och ska starta upp produktion eller har en produktion som har fungerat. För ibland hittar man guld/silver där man inte tror, så hittar man inte/mindre där man tror det finns. Det kan vara massor av problem med att gå igång en produktion av en resurs, det är mycket geologi i detta och olika blandningar av metaller och mineral och bergrunder och kan vara komplicerat att kommersiellt utvinna guldet/silvret. Sen att man fått igång en produktion betyder inte ens det att det kommer att flyta på bra, utan det kan uppstå problem helt plötsligt som att cash cost ökar mycket och/eller "grades" sjunker.
Som ni läsare av bloggen märkt så har guld och silverbolagen fått minskad exponering här i bloggen, det som finns kvar sedan gammalt är oljebolag, med Lundin Petroleum som aktuellt innehav och Africa oil och Tethys oil som är på bevakningslistan för närvarande. Men förutom detta har jag börjat skriva om andra bolag som banker (swedbank, Deutsche bank, citigroup) och verkstadsbolag (Sandvik, Atlas Copco) med mera. Men intresset för teknik och innovation finns kvar som "Cassandra oil" som bevakas som både är en producent av olja men genom revolutionerande teknik.
fredag 9 augusti 2013
Silver Standard förlust Q2 2013
Silver Standard Incurs Net Loss of $235.9 Million for Q2 2013
Other highlights include:
John Smith, president and CEO of Silver Standard, commented:
- Lowered 2013 cash cost guidance: Reduced 2013 cash cost guidance by 18% to between $14.00 and $15.00 per payable ounce of silver sold and reported second quarter cash costs at Pirquitas of $13.03 per payable ounce of silver sold.
- Delivered to plan at Pirquitas: Produced 1.9 million ounces of silver, on track to achieve improved full year production guidance of 8.3 to 8.5 million ounces of silver. Produced a record 5.6 million pounds of zinc, the highest quarterly zinc production since mine start-up.
- Sold consistently into long-term sales contracts: Sold 2.2 million ounces of silver, generating revenue of $32.7 million.
- Advanced cost restructuring program: Cost reduction program at Pirquitas advanced with headcount reductions of 7% to date with further reductions planned. Structured programs focusing on third party contract services and operational controls at the plant and mine have been initiated to drive efficiency and positively reposition the mine on the industry cost curve.
- Recognized impairment: Recognized non-cash, pre-tax impairment charge and write-downs of $221.7 million related to Pirquitas, exploration projects and assets held for sale.
- Progressed Pitarrilla with pre-construction activities: Submitted a final Environmental Impact Statement and tendered the EPCM contract. Advanced surface access rights processes and commenced formal partner and financing plan.
- Maintained strong liquidity position: Cash balance of $435.8 million as at June 30, 2013.
We are focused on taking the right steps given the current market conditions, whilst preserving long-term value. This quarter, Pirquitas continued delivering to our production plan and costs are being reduced, which can be seen in our revised guidance. Although Silver Standard has a substantial cash balance, we have advanced a cost restructuring program throughout the organization aimed at real cost savings and improved operating performance. Looking ahead, Pitarrilla is a key driver of our long-term growth and continues to advance due to our solid technical capability and liquidity.
fredag 2 augusti 2013
Directionless Silver Pushed Around by Fed News, Concerns
Directionless Silver Pushed Around by Fed News, Concerns
This week, silver was unable to sustain last week’s gains, sinking below $20 and only passing that mark on two brief occasions.Silver started out below $19.80 per ounce on Monday, but quickly rose to $20.12. However, concerns prior to a two-day Federal Reserve meeting set to begin the next day soon drove it back down and the metal closed the day at $19.92.
Tuesday, silver continued to fall, dropping as far as $19.57 early in the morning. Though it was able to rise to $19.97 later in the day, by Wednesday it had fallen even lower, to $19.49, on the release of US second-quarter GDP and June private payroll numbers, according to Scotiabank’s Gold & Silver Marketwatch. Later that day, the white metal made its second rise above $20, hitting $20.04 as market participants took in the news that the Fed will continue quantitative easing.
Silver closed Thursday at $19.63 after hitting a high of $19.90 earlier in the day.
If Barclays is to be believed, investors may still have more up-and-down movement to weather. The investment bank said Monday that the white metal may decline another 12 percent to hit its lowest price in three years. It believes silver may be set to form a “a triangular pattern called a bearish pennant,” according to Bloomberg.
Dhiren Sarin, the firm’s chief technical strategist for Asia Pacific, noted, “[w]e are moderately bearish at the moment though we are watching these levels.”
Gold-silver ratio to rise
The gold-silver ratio — the amount of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold — rose to a three-year high of 66.6 on July 19 and is set to reach 70 by the end of the year as a result of excess silver supply, Bloomberg reported.
Explaining the situation, Dominic Schnider, head of commodities research at UBS’ Singapore-based wealth management unit, told the publication, “[t]he silver market is in fabrication surplus, and the only thing that’s keeping it alive is investment demand and there is no meaningful increase in ETFs. In an environment where gold falls, silver simply just does more, it’s more volatile.”
onsdag 31 juli 2013
Silverpriset kan få skjuts av nya solkrafts initiativ
New Solar Power Initiatives May Boost Silver Prices
Most silver market players have long since resigned themselves to the fact that the white metal’s average price for the year will likely be significantly lower than was initially expected — back in April, HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) cut its 2013 silver outlook to $26 per ounce from $33, while earlier this month Canaccord Genuity reduced its 12-month forecast to $23 per ounce from $32.50.
However, if recent reports from China and Japan are to be believed, silver may be poised to benefit from an unexpected source of demand: the solar power industry.China and Japan step up
Though silver is perhaps best known as an investment tool, it is not without other sources of demand, one of which is the solar industry.
In an article published last week by Casey Research, Jeff Clark, senior precious metals analyst at the firm, notes that while photovoltaic technology, the backbone of the solar industry, did not begin registering on silver demand charts until the turn of the millennium, the amount of silver consumed by solar panel makers has risen approximately 50 percent per year since that time.
Currently, it accounts for 5.6 percent of all industrial silver use, but, as mentioned, two factors mean that amount may be set to increase.
The first is the fact that on July 4, China’s State Council said it will stand behind a plan, originally put forward by the nation’s State Grid, to raise China’s solar generating capacity to 35 gigawatts (GW) by 2015. That is 67 percent higher than the previous target of 21 gigawatts (GW) and will mean a yearly addition of 10 GW from 2013 to 2015, according to Clark.
Second, Japan, China’s western neighbor, will increase its solar generation capacity by about 5.3 GW this year, David Franklin and David Baker state in a Sprott’s Thoughts report. Also this year, the country’s domestic solar power market is expected to reach $19.8 billion, meaning that it will pass Germany as the world’s largest solar market.
Potential market impact
The key question, of course, is exactly how much impact these factors will have on the silver market as a whole.
Franklin and Baker give a clear outline of their likely effects, stating that as per information from the Silver Institute, making 1 megawatt of electricity requires up to 2.8 million ounces of the white metal. If China and Japan end up increasing their solar generation capacity by as much as they currently plan — a combined total of about 27 GW — together they will require around 91 million ounces of silver. That’s up to 11 percent of global mine supply by 2012 numbers, a fairly sizeable amount.
Looking longer term, they point out that silver used in solar panels cannot be recycled; once it is used, it is gone forever. That means solar generation has the potential to put ever-increasing pressure on the silver market, particularly if other countries follow China and Japan’s lead in upping their solar generation capacity.
What’s an investor to do?
Franklin, Baker and Clark all appear to agree that the silver market could benefit significantly if all goes as expected in China and Japan. However, those who are not yet convinced should consider watching future silver price forecasts to see whether they take the two countries’ plans into account; Franklin and Baker state that so far no 2013 silver price forecasts have incorporated these announcements.
Investors who are ready to leap into the market might take a leaf out of Clark’s book — he finishes his article by emphatically advising investors to “buy silver now.”
fredag 26 juli 2013
Silver Wheaton CEO tror botten nådd
Smallwood said in the interview:
"I put more faith in the gold side mostly because so much silver is produced as a byproduct. Only about 25 percent of silver actually comes from silver mines. Having silver mines shut down doesn’t really have that big of an overall impact because so much of silver still gets produced as a byproduct no matter what the price of silver is. So we tend to look at gold from that perspective more than silver."
"And when I see mines shutting down because they can’t work at $1,250 gold, or $1,300 gold, more expansion projects being cancelled or deferred, that tells me that we have hit a bottom. The supply side is just not there. And once you see tightening on the supply side that puts price pressure on the commodity. There are all sorts of other factors, but having that price pressure sure helps. I do think it indicates we are at a bottom."
onsdag 24 juli 2013
Tahoe Resources production Q4 2013?
4Silver Investing News (SIN) recently had the chance to speak with Kevin McArthur, president, CEO and director of Tahoe Resources (TSX:THO5,NYSE:TAHO), about his company’s flagship Escobal project, located in Southeastern Guatemala.
In the interview below, McArthur discusses when the company plans to reach production, the benefits of operating in Guatemala and where he thinks silver prices are headed. He also discusses Tahoe’s new corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiative.
SIN: Can you start by giving our readers a brief overview of the Escobal project? Why should investors be excited about it?
Kevin McArthur (KM): The company is building the Escobal project to world standards; our goal is to build a world-class mine that we will operate responsibly. It will produce 20 million ounces of silver per year. The attributes of this deposit are such that we believe we will be leading the industry in free cash flow per share, earnings per share — eventually, our goal is to lead the industry in dividend yield also. We think we can demonstrate organic growth and also deliver community sustainability. In doing so, we’ll be able to deliver long-term shareholder value, which is basically what this business is all about.
Specifically, the deposit is set apart from silver deposits around the world for four main reasons. Number one, it’s very high grade. It’s got silver, lead7, zinc8 and gold9, but the silver itself amounts to over 350 million ounces in the measured and indicated category at over 400 grams per ton. It’s also got very wide veins, so we can put very large equipment into the underground operations and drive the unit cost down. Because of grade and width, we believe that our cash cost will be the lowest, or at least in the lower decile or quartile of cash costs for silver mines. Second, it’s got geologic prospectivity, which I touched on earlier — it continues to grow, so we believe we’ll continue to add value over time. Third, it’s in an area where there’s excellent infrastructure. That is very important in this business. We’re not 4,000 meters up in the Andes and we’re not way up in Northern Canada in Nunavut — we’re in Guatemala. There’s paved road access, we’re an hour and a half from the capital city of Guatemala, there’s water, there’s power and there’s a nearby community, so we don’t have to establish a camp to live in. As I mentioned, the elevation is moderate. We’ve got a management team there on the ground. Most importantly, the mine is almost complete. We’re just starting our commissioning activities now and we expect to be in production — at least early production — in the fourth quarter of this year, with revenues exceeding costs by next year. We’ll have that, we hope, on a sustainable basis. This will be a fabulous mine.
SIN: It sounds like you’re moving quickly toward commercial production. What are the things that need to happen before you get there?
KM: A lot of those things have been done. We’ve derisked the project to a great extent and we understand the deposit. The biggest hurdles we had were getting our permits on a timely basis, but we’ve received all of our permits and established all of our derisking milestones according to the schedule that we posted in 2010. So we’ve been hitting our timelines nicely.
The construction of the mill and underground development of course is usually a horse race. We had a real advantage in that we were permitted for underground development back in February 2011, so we were able to drive 5×6-meter declines into the mining areas at a very early stage. Infrastructure and mill construction has gone on since 2011. We’re currently ready with the mine, and we’re very close to mill completion — as I said, we have now started the mill commissioning activities.
Our next challenge will be those commissioning activities, getting the mill up and running in time to hit our goal of full-scale production early next year. We’ve done the derisking along the way and basically completed all of the technical work, so we feel pretty good about it.
10
Fine ore bins.
SIN: The Guatemalan government recently announced a two-year moratorium on granting new mining and exploration licenses. My understanding is that Escobal will be unaffected, but your press release11 on the topic says you’ll be pulling back on some “regional work.” Can you talk about that situation a bit?
KM: First of all, it’s only a proposal for a two-year moratorium. The president proposed that Congress approve it. The reason is so that the Energy and Mines Ministry can devote its time to working with Congress on a revision to the mining law. This is a revision that’s been contemplated for some time. They’re considering approving the royalty that we’re already committed to paying through our agreement with the president — our royalty on the minerals we produce is 4 percent plus an additional one percent to outlying communities. The revision is also aimed at encouraging community participation in the approval of mining projects and for assurances on the closure of mines. So there are a variety of things that are being looked at under the new mining law.
The two-year moratorium hasn’t been approved yet, but we think that it will be. Essentially, the Energy and Mines Ministry is not processing new applications at this point. But as you stated, we are not affected by it because we have licenses in and around our property where we can do exploration that we would anticipate will grow the resource over time and will add to mine life. But we have a 2,000-square-kilometer area where we have regional concessions, some of which haven’t been approved yet, that we’re not going to able to do work on until we have approval. So we’ll have to halt our plan to commence regional work until the situation gets resolved.
SIN: Leaving aside the moratorium, what would you say are the advantages/disadvantages of working in Guatemala?
KM: There are some great advantages. First of all, you’ve got to go where the precious metals are, and Guatemala has very good geology and a very good business environment for mines. I think Guatemala is a little bit misunderstood in terms of the business environment, but it’s a very positive place to do business. As I said, we received our permits and have received positive support from the government in permitting the mine and also great support from the business community in establishing this brand new company in a very short period of time. So there are very solid advantages to Guatemala on the business end.
It’s also a fully-functioing democracy. There were 30 years of civil war that ended in the ‘90s, and since then there’s been a good democratic government in place with peaceful transfer of power to a new president and congress every four years. The democracy in Guatemala works very well. As I said, I believe because of the noise that comes out of Guatemala it’s misunderstood, but we have found it to be a very good place to operate.
12
Crusher.
SIN: Ira [vice president investor relations at Tahoe] mentioned that your focus is on long-term share price appreciation, and it looks like things are going well so far. With many companies struggling, how do you account for your success? Is there a particular strategy you’re living by in these markets?
KM: We look to be a high-grade silver miner with underground mines and intend to continue growing the company with that kind of profile. A lot of us on the team worked for Glamis Gold — I was the CEO — where we delivered shareholder value by looking for assets that were unusual in terms of all of the attributes I’ve described Escobal as having. We were always looking for a 15-percent hurdle rate on any business propositions we made, including acquisitions and mine expansions, and we didn’t use our stock to buy assets unless we got an adequate rate of return. During Glamis’ years from 1999 to 2006, we built five mines, and our share price moved dramatically during that time period because we made smart decisions and always demanded a rate of return that was higher than what other companies would demand.
We have internal models for hurdle rates and the way we operate, making sure that we always balance all stakeholder issues. And when I say stakeholder, I mean shareholders, employees and communities. We feel that if we find the right balance between what shareholders need, what our employees wish and what communities require, we will be a successful operator. Finding that right balance, we feel, is key to a successful mining company.
SIN: Recently there has been some speculation that silver prices have hit bottom13 and are set to head upward. What is your opinion?
KM: Well, I’m a little bit biased here, but I came out of retirement to run this company and I felt that silver was a good metal to be associated with. There’s always supply-demand issues regarding precious metals, and the one advantage that silver has over gold is that there’s a fair amount of industrial demand that doesn’t go away. Also, the silver that goes into making products does not get recycled because it just doesn’t pay to pull the silver components out of a cell phone, for instance. Quite the opposite is true for gold. Almost all gold that has been mined historically still sits on the surface today in various forms. So I think the supply-demand dynamic for silver is very good, and because of that I think we’ll see silver prices doing well.
The thing about silver prices dropping is that it’s a curse and a blessing. The blessing comes in a funny way in that the all-in cost of sustaining mine production is higher than today’s silver price when you look at averages in this industry. Therefore, the supply-demand curve will start to be impacted over a period of time because marginal mines and mines that are not making money will have to close if the silver price stays where it is today or goes lower. So there’s a natural buffering capacity in the industry that will happen.
The reason I would speculate that silver prices will go up is for currency reasons. Gold and silver are competitors in the currency business, and compared to western currencies, gold and silver should hold up quite well and do very well considering that western currencies are being printed at a runaway pace. I don’t necessarily look at silver prices going up. The way I look at the world is that the paper money that is going to be used to purchase this silver and gold is going to be falling dramatically in value; therefore, you have to use more dollars to buy an ounce of silver, so the silver price goes up on a relative basis . If you follow that to its logical conclusion, you can see a much higher silver price in the future.
14
Ball mill.
SIN: Is there anything else you’d like to add?
KM: We have just recently started a big initiative in the company, and it relates to getting our final permit in April of this year. The initiative is on CSR. Not only do we want to become the new leader in the silver space, but we want to operate responsibly with that balance that I spoke about between all. stakeholders We’ve started a new division in the company so we have equal weight between operations, finance, exploration and now CSR. We’ve hired BSR to help guide our plans both corporately and in country. We just recently put out a press release that describes some of the things that we’re doing in our CSR programs. I want to highlight that as something we strongly believe in. We will have more news on the initiative going forward.
SIN: Thank you very much for speaking with me today.
onsdag 17 juli 2013
Have Silver Prices Finally Hit Bottom?
Survey: Have Silver Prices Finally Hit Bottom?
Last week, Silver Investing News took a look at commentary from John Whitefoot, author and editor at Daily Gains Letter, and Sprott’s Thoughts’ David Franklin and David Baker, identifying two reasons that silver prices could be set to rise. Now, as silver prices slowly creep up the charts, market participants are wondering whether the white metal is rebounding after hitting bottom or simply enjoying a short-term boost.Here’s a look at a number of factors, identified by Market Oracle analyst Jason Hamlin and Tony Davis of Atlanta Gold & Coin Buyers, that suggest silver prices have truly bottomed out:
- Mining stocks are doing better than metals: Hamlin notes in his article that in the last week or so, “quality mining stocks” have started to perform better than the metals they represent. Put more simply, many silver miners have risen upwards of 8 percent while silver is up just 4.5 percent. Up until now, the white metal has been faring better than such stocks.
- Support may exist at $18.50: Another point covered by Hamlin is that on “four separate occasions from 2008 to 2010,” silver has encountered strong resistance at the $18 to $19 level. That is significant, he notes, because “[t]he stronger the initial resistance, the stronger the future support.” He believes that, as it has done in the past, the white metal will bounce off this level.
- JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is collecting silver: For his part, Davis points to the fact that JPMorgan “is taking physical delivery of silver bullion in upwards of 90%” of contracts being settled, a drastic increase from the usual 3 percent. While the bank could just be anticipating increased demand for physical delivery requests, it may also be gearing up for a rise in silver prices, Davis states.
While Hamlin and Davis mainly identify different things they believe point to a bottom in the silver market, the one thing they agree on is that for many miners, silver is now at or below its cost of production. As Hamlin points out, that situation is unsustainable — after all, he asks, “[h]ow many items can you buy in the marketplace at or below the cost to produce it?” The answer, of course, is not very many, a point that David Morgan made to SIN not long ago. As a result, both writers believe it won’t be long before companies start closing unprofitable mines, thereby decreasing supply and driving prices up.
A nod to the naysayers
Of course, not everyone believes that the bottom for silver prices is here. In a SilverSeek article published yesterday, Przemyslaw Radomski states that while silver moved higher last week, its “downtrend will remain in place … unless [it] can increase and hold a breakout above the $20.70 price level,” a “short-term resistance level” he says is based on intra-day highs.
As yet, the white metal has not done so, and as a result, Radomski believes that last week’s upward movement was merely a “contra-trend bounce” and the final bottom for silver is still to come.
With opinions ranged across the board it is difficult to say where the silver price will go next. Let us know what you think will happen in the survey below.
fredag 12 juli 2013
2 Reasons Silver Prices Look Set to Rise
It’s no secret that silver has fared poorly this year. But exactly how bad is bad? Since June drew to a close, news agencies have been quick to report the extent of the damage: the white metal has fallen 35 percent in the first six months of 2013 and is set to record its worst performance in three decades.
Disheartening though that number may be, some market participants believe that a turnaround is coming. Here’s a look at why John Whitefoot, author and editor at Daily Gains Letter, and Sprott’s Thoughts’ David Franklin and David Baker believe that silver is gearing up for gains.
Economic uncertainty could buoy prices
In a recent commentary, Whitefoot notes that although this year was supposed to be “the year that silver regained its luster,” climbing either as a hedge against inflation and a devalued dollar or on the back of industrial demand, “strangely” that has not happened.
However, Whitefoot believes that all is by no means lost, stating that for contrarian investors — those who attempt to profit by investing in ways that go against conventional wisdom — “silver has never lost its shine — its role as a safe haven hasn’t really changed.” Elaborating on that idea, he explains that the US economy is still not particularly strong. For instance, the country’s unemployment rate sits at about 7.5 percent, first-quarter GDP growth was “well below” expectations and wages are not improving. Outside the US, Portugal is facing problems and the Chinese economy is not doing overly well.
These factors, according to Whitefoot, indicate that “all of the ingredients for a rally are still set” — and based on the fact that the US Mint has sold 43.9 percent more Silver Eagles in the first half of 2013 compared to the same period last year, he believes average American investors can see that.
He concludes his piece with the statement that “as long as the global economy remains uncertain and central banks continue to print more and more money, silver will continue to be in demand as a store of value.”
Commercial traders going long on silver
Taking a different approach, in a Sprott’s Thoughts note published yesterday, Franklin and Baker point out that hope for silver prices can be drawn from the fact that collectively, commercial traders — in other words, large banks — have reduced their short positions from 259 million ounces in February 2013 to just 20 million ounces as of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report released June 25. That reduction “represents the cumulative purchase of approximately 240 million ounces of ‘long’ silver contracts.”
That is significant, say the writers, because commercial traders have “traditionally held significantly large ‘short’ positions,” meaning that they are “either hedging an existing silver position or betting that silver will depreciate.” A shift away from short positions toward long positions could mean that such traders are now preparing for a “bullish silver reversal.” Franklin and Baker believe that this idea is further supported by the fact that commercial traders have also reduced their net short gold positions.
Like Whitefoot, Franklin and Baker end their writeup by suggesting that these changes in positioning may indicate that silver prices are set to hit bottom and turn around.
The upshot
Though silver has been the underdog so far this year, there are at least two reasons that may be about to change. Those interested in the white metal should consider keeping an eye on future COT reports as well as economic conditions.
Silver Price Rallies to Six-week High
The silver market is still very much influenced by speculation as to when the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will pull the plug on the current round of quantitative easing (QE), as is evidenced by this week’s price action.
Early in the week, silver tracked gold higher on short covering and safe-haven demand sparked by political upheaval in Egypt, closing back up four pennies over $19 an ounce Monday. That moderate upswing continued Tuesday as inflation news out of China lent further support to gold and silver despite a stronger US dollar, pushing silver up to $19.12 an ounce.
This week’s rally really picked up momentum mid-week after the release of minutes from Wednesday’s US FOMC meeting, Bloomberg reported. Precious metals bulls gained strength from FOMC members stating that they want to wait for more positive economic signals before axing bond buying. A slight loss in the US dollar, in addition to higher oil prices, was also bullish for silver, which closed Wednesday at $19.37 an ounce.
Silver’s much-awaited rally continued for a fourth straight session Thursday, the metal’s longest rally since March 8, according to Bloomberg. The precious metals markets were bolstered by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s call for a “[h]ighly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future” from the US central bank in order to spur economic growth. Silver hit a six-week high for a Thursday close of $19.965 an ounce.
Company news
Coeur Mining (TSX:CDM,NYSE:CDE) released results from the preliminary economic assessment completed on its La Preciosa silver-gold project in Durango, Mexico. The mine is expected to produce an estimated 134.5 million ounces of silver over a mine life of 17 years, making La Preciosa potentially one of the top 10 primary silver mines in the world. The mine is expected to generate a 17-percent after-tax internal rate of return based on $25 per silver ounce and $1,500 per gold ounce.
First Majestic Silver (TSX:FR,NYSE:AG) announced that total Q2 production at its five Mexican silver mines increased 55 percent over the same period last year for a record 34,268,117 equivalent ounces of silver. The producer also has said it will cut 10 percent of its workforce this year, reported Reuters, due to slumping silver prices. The company has already canceled drilling contacts and suspended silver sales.
Great Panther Silver (TSX:GPR,NYSEMKT:GPL) reported Q2 production from its Guanajuato and Topia mines in Mexico. Metal production rose 22 percent over the same period last year, to 680,212 silver equivalent ounces. The company attributes the increase to improved grades and operational efficiency. Great Panther’s management is confident the company remains on track to meet its fiscal 2013 production guidance of 2.4 to 2.5 million silver equivalent ounces.
Q2 production figures for Fortuna Silver Mines‘ (TSX:FVI,NYSE:FSM) San Jose mine in Mexico and the Caylloma mine in Peru show a total of 1,074,007 ounces of silver and 5,183 ounces of gold. So far this year, production at the two mines has totaled 2,066,225 ounces of silver and 9,675 ounces of gold. The silver producer is on target to meet its 2013 production guidance of 5.9 million ounces of silver equivalent.
Endeavour Silver (TSX:EDR,NYSE:EXK) announced record-breaking second-quarter silver and gold production. Compared to the same quarter last year, second-quarter silver production for 2013 rose 48 percent, to 1,535,873 ounces, while gold was up 159 percent, to 19,914 ounces. Revenues for the quarter were also up 57 percent, to US$63.5 million. The company attributes its stellar production numbers to successful operations at the Bolanitos mine, whose output peaked at 3,000 metric tons per day.
Junior company news
Entourage Metals (TSXV:EMT) commenced exploration work at its La Liga silver project in the Yukon Territory, Canada. The program is focused on high-grade silver plus lead-zinc mineralization at the Red Devil and Galactose zones and will involve detailed geologic mapping, prospecting and mechanical trenching.
Apogee Silver (TSXV:APE) reported that a development and sampling program at its Pulacayo project in Bolivia has exposed a vein with an average grade of 868 g/t silver over a 97-meter strike length and average width of 0.61 meters. The company is seeking financial partners in the construction of a Phase I mine and mill complex at Pulacayo; it is designed to produce 2.5 million silver equivalent ounces per year.
torsdag 4 juli 2013
Will Indian Silver Imports Reach a Record in 2013?
Will Indian Silver Imports Reach a Record in 2013?
Like most commodities, silver has had a tough time these past few months, having fallen from close to $30 in mid-April to its current price of $19.32. However, good news for the white metal has recently arisen in the form of Indian silver import figures.
In a note published last Friday, Eric Sprott and David Franklin state that after importing just 1,900 metric tons (MT) of silver in 2012, India has brought in 2,400 MT of the precious metal in just the first five months of this year. That is significant given the fact that India’s record for silver imports, recorded in 2008, is 5,048 MT, as per SilverSeek.com.
Why the surge in imports?
In terms of precious metals, India’s claim to fame has long been its status as the world’s biggest gold consumer. It’s gained that title largely because people in the country have limited access to banks, and, according to Sprott and Franklin, “owning precious metals is synonymous with savings and security.”
However, at present, taxes and import restrictions are making it difficult for buyers to get their hands on the yellow metal. Seeking Alpha contributor Dante Caruso elaborates on those measures in a recent article, commenting that in May, the Indian government raised the gold import duty to 8 percent from 6 percent as part of its “drastic measures to redirect [gold] investment back into the economy.” Further, lending against gold, including gold jewelry and gold ETFs, has been restricted, while Reliance Capital and the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation are attempting to curb sales of gold and gold-related products.
As a result “it would appear that the Indian gold trade has moved offshore” to get away from those factors, while ”the majority of Indian investors” — excluding larger investors — are gravitating toward silver, Sprott and Franklin state.
The implications
Unsurprisingly, these circumstances have investors wondering whether this year will see India break its 2008 record for silver imports.
More importantly, many are considering how the market will be affected if India breaks, or even approaches, that record. Shedding some light on that topic, Caruso states in his article that due to both silver’s cheapness relative to gold and the fact that Indians spend so much more money on gold than on silver — respectively $7.2 billion and $665 million in May — “[v]ery little redirection of gold investment into silver is required to have a major impact.”
Put more bluntly, that means that if even a small number of gold investors decide to buy silver instead, the silver market could easily be overwhelmed, with prices rising “very quickly” as supply diminishes.
With that in mind, it looks as though, like Sprott and Franklin state, silver will be the true winner in India’s “war on gold.”
re-post on Emerging Silver Producers in Mexico
Emerging Silver Producers in Mexico
Silver mining in Mexico is on the rise, and many hopefuls are flocking to the country to try their luck. Here’s a look at five such companies.Canada’s Aurcana (TSXV:AUN) owns 99.9 percent of the La Negra silver-copper-lead-zinc mine, which is located in Queretaro State, Mexico. As of 2009, La Negra was milling 1,000 metric tons (MT) per day, a number that jumped to 2,500 MT per day in 2012. This year, Aurcana expects to reach 3,000 MT per day. While exploration is ongoing at La Negra, a report from August 2012 identified 115 million ounces of measured and indicated silver underground. This news changed the mine’s life to at least 30 years.
Avino Silver & Gold Mines (TSXV:ASM), also based in Canada, has 99.28-percent ownership of the Avino mine in the heart of the Sierra Madre Gold-Silver Belt. The mine was discovered in the 1500s and has been in operation, on and off, ever since. The mine has been owned by Avino since 1974, though production shut down in 2001 as a result of low silver prices and the closure of a key smelter. Avino has since reopened the mine. The San Gonzalo zone achieved full-time production in October 2012, while the company is exploring new zones in the area that were discovered in 2011.
Formerly a subsidiary of NSGold (TSXV:NSX), NSX Silver (TSXV:NSY) is currently actively mining the Dios Padre mine, located in the Eastern Sierra Madre mountain range about midway between Hermosillo and Chihuahua in East-Central Sonora. NSX believes that the Dios Padre property’s exploration potential is excellent, particularly in the breccia body. The property has been mined since the 17th century and hosts high-grade silver mineralization. Pilot tests have already demonstrated that the property responds well to conventional milling and flotation, yielding a concentrate with 87-percent recovery of silver.
Gold and silver producer Silvermex Resources (TSX:SLX)‘s primary asset is La Guitarra, a property located in the Temascaltepec mining district of Central Mexico. The property, along with the company, was absorbed by First Majestic Silver (TSX:FR,NYSE:AG) in July 2012. The mine covers 98,135 acres and has been mined since the 15th century. Recently, the company completed an expansion program, increasing its silver production capacity by 40 percent, to 500 MT per day. Further planning is currently underway to increase production to as much as 1,000 MT per day. The mine consists of two underground operation centers and a flotation mill.
Vancouver-based Kootenay Silver (TSXV:KTN) is currently exploring its Promontorio mine in Sonora, Mexico; the company recently discovered that the mine contains 92 million silver equivalent (AuEq) ounces. The mine is made up of approximately 197,684 acres and contains an estimated 44.5 million MT grading an average of 64.32 g/t AuEq. Exploration of the area indicates that as many as 92 million ounces of AuEq could be available, with an additional 24 million ounces categorized as “inferred.” The company is approaching a milestone of 1 million ounces of AuEq mined.
Silver companies in Mexico
Silver companies in Mexico
The history of silver mining in Mexico stretches back almost 500 years, when the great silver-gold vein system of the Veta Madre at Guanajuato was discovered in 1550. That area is now known as the Silver Belt, and it stretches from Guanajuato and Zacatecas in the Mesa Central, Chihuahua in the Mesa del Norte and San Luis Potosi to the East. Today, this is the home to silver mining companies from around the world."Geologically, there is no better place on earth for silver," said geologist Peter Megaw to The Northern Miner.
Megaw, president of International Development and Exploration and confounder of MAG Silver (MAG-T, MVG-X), has worked in Mexico for nearly 40 years. Last year Mexico produced over 162 million ounces of silver, making it the global leader in silver production.
Though Mexico has long since been a major player on the silver mining scene, the country was not receptive to foreign investors for a large part of the twentieth century. From 1961 to 1991, the Mexican mining law stipulated that mineral assets must be at least 50 percent owned by Mexican companies. In the 1990s, when the law changed to allow 100 percent foreign investment, international companies quickly flocked to reinvest in the country's silver mines, resulting in many new silver sources being uncovered.
Companies to watch in 2013
Fresnillo PLC (FRES:LN) is a United Kingdom-based company which made its debut on the London Stock Exchange in 2008. The group maintains the largest land area of concessions for precious metals exploration and mining in Mexico. In 2012, Fresnillo produced 36.9 million ounces of silver, and the first quarter of 2013 has produced 10.1 million ounces already, putting it up 2.6 percent over the first quarter of 2012.
First Majestic Silver Corporation (TSX:FR, NYSE:AG) currently owns and operates mines in Mexico, with its headquarters in British Columbia, Canada. The corporation anticipates the production of over 11 million ounces of silver in 2013 through their five mines, La Parrilla Silver Mine, the San Martin Silver Mine, the La Encantada Silver Mine, the Del Toro Silver Mine and the La Guitarra Silver Mine.
Endeavour Silver Corporation (NYSE: EXK, TSX: EDR) has seen eight consecutive years of growth since its startup in 2004. The company is mid-tier, focusing on expansion programs at its three operating mines in Mexico, the Guanaceví Mines operation in Durango State and the Bolañitos (formerly called Guanajuato Mines) and El Cubo mines operations in Guanajuato State. A total silver production of more than 5 million ounces is expected in 2013 after a 2012 yield of 4.5 million ounces.
What to keep in mind when investing in silver
Silver, in general, is considered a safe investment. Its worth is not generally going to be greatly affected by political turmoil or economic crisis. However, it should be noted that silver serves as a currency as well as an industrial metal. This gives it behavior similar to that of a currency and may act as an inflation hedge during falling dollar prices.
Silver exploration companies in Mexico
Silver Exploration Companies in Mexico
As silver mining becomes more widespread and successful in Mexico, many companies are in the process of exploring promising properties.
Southern Silver Exploration Corp. (TSXV:SSV)
Based in Vancouver, Canada, this junior exploration company is currently working on multiple projects throughout North America, including two in Mexico. Southern Silver’s flagship exploration property is the Cerro Las Minitas silver-lead-zinc property located in Durango State, Mexico. It covers over 57.9 square miles, much of which is in Northern Mexico’s Faja de Plata, or Belt of Silver. According to the company’s website, this area has historic production and resources of over 3 billion ounces of silver.
Southern Silver is also in the process of exploring its Minas de Ameca project in Jalisco State. This property contains silver, gold and copper deposits within its 50.6-square-mile area.
Arian Silver Corporation (TSXV:AGQ)
The silver exploration, development and production company focuses primarily on the silver belt in Mexico, specifically Zacatecas State. Its mission is to explore properties with prior exploration and production history in order to best reduce risks and capital costs.
Currently, Arian Silver’s main exploration project is its 100-percent-owned Calicanto Group, which encompasses 7 adjacent properties in Zacatecas. It does not have a current reserve estimate, but during previous production in 1955, a small section of the mines had monthly production of 1,500 to 3,400 dry tons, with an average of 110 grams per ton of silver. The property has since been expanded through exploration.
Aura Silver Resources (TSXV:AUU)
Aura Silver’s concentration is silver and gold in North America. Its major Taviche Project is located in Oaxaca, Mexico, within the San Jose Mining District.
This exploration project is made up of the Taviche East and Alma Delia concessions, according to the company’s website. Within these, research on the Higo Blanco prospect has determined an inferred silver resource of 865,000 metric tons at a grade of 119 grams per ton, amounting to 3.3 million ounces of contained silver.
Kootenay Silver (TSXV:KTN)
The Vancouver-based exploration and mining company is focused heavily on the exploration of its 100-percent-owned flagship Promontorio Silver Project located in Sonora, Mexico. Kootenay Silver’s most recent resource estimate found this property holds an estimated 92,035,000 ounces of silver equivalent, plus an additional 24,326,000 ounces inferred. Promontorio is also estimated to contain sizeable gold deposits.
Currently, the Promontorio property is such a priority that Kootenay is not in the process of exploring any other areas.
NSX Silver (TSXV:NSY)
Also headquartered in Canada, NSX Silver is a mineral exploration company focused on the exploration and development of silver in Mexico. Its primary asset is the Dios Padre project located in the Eastern Sierra Madre Mountain range between Hermosillo and Chihuahua.
The Dios Padre’s past production reached 16 million ounces of silver, according to the company website, and its current exploration potential is considered to be excellent. NSX Silver has plans to produce a resource estimation for the project in the near future.
fredag 28 juni 2013
David Morgan on Drutter’s Divergence and the Silver Price
"In recent weeks, a YouTube user known as Drutter has been making the news with his videos,
many of which track the growing divergence between the market price of
silver and physical demand for Silver Eagles from the US Mint. "
"SIN: To start off with, could you give our readers a brief explanation of what Drutter’s divergence is?
David Morgan: It looks to me like the main point is that you have good buying, particularly in the coin realm, Silver Eagles, and yet you see this divergence between an increase in Silver Eagle purchases and a decrease in the price of silver, and you have long consolidation periods. Mike Maloney made the point that the bull market’s intact, there’s massive buying in Silver Eagles and the price has been decimated recently, particularly the last couple of years and in particular the last few months.
Therefore, based on this Drutter’s divergence, it seems to me Mike Maloney was implying we’re getting ready for another upsurge. That’s how I see it — it’s basically a divergence between physical buying, particularly looking at coins, and the price."
"Let me explain. I went around the world saying that no one knew how high was high when silver was still trading near the $5 level and the breakout point was $5.55 the ounce. It finally broke out at $5.55 the ounce — I forecast that would happen in September 2003, and it did.
The price shot to $8.40, then it came back and briefly touched the $5.55 level and then it moved up. The next big move up was up into the twelves or so; then it came back down and touched $8.40. Then it moved all the way up to $21 before coming back down to touch into the nines. Then it moved all the way up to the $48 level.
I mentioned in the members video that we might see it touch back down to the breakout point, which was at QE2 at $19 an ounce, roughly. I said, “believe it or not, if this silver market holds true to form, I wouldn’t rule out that we’ll retrace all the way back to this $19 level,” and that’s pretty much where we’re at right now.”"
David Morgan on Drutter’s Divergence and the Silver Price
"SIN: To start off with, could you give our readers a brief explanation of what Drutter’s divergence is?
David Morgan: It looks to me like the main point is that you have good buying, particularly in the coin realm, Silver Eagles, and yet you see this divergence between an increase in Silver Eagle purchases and a decrease in the price of silver, and you have long consolidation periods. Mike Maloney made the point that the bull market’s intact, there’s massive buying in Silver Eagles and the price has been decimated recently, particularly the last couple of years and in particular the last few months.
Therefore, based on this Drutter’s divergence, it seems to me Mike Maloney was implying we’re getting ready for another upsurge. That’s how I see it — it’s basically a divergence between physical buying, particularly looking at coins, and the price."
"Let me explain. I went around the world saying that no one knew how high was high when silver was still trading near the $5 level and the breakout point was $5.55 the ounce. It finally broke out at $5.55 the ounce — I forecast that would happen in September 2003, and it did.
The price shot to $8.40, then it came back and briefly touched the $5.55 level and then it moved up. The next big move up was up into the twelves or so; then it came back down and touched $8.40. Then it moved all the way up to $21 before coming back down to touch into the nines. Then it moved all the way up to the $48 level.
I mentioned in the members video that we might see it touch back down to the breakout point, which was at QE2 at $19 an ounce, roughly. I said, “believe it or not, if this silver market holds true to form, I wouldn’t rule out that we’ll retrace all the way back to this $19 level,” and that’s pretty much where we’re at right now.”"
David Morgan on Drutter’s Divergence and the Silver Price
David Morgan om Silver
Silver Sheds Another Dollar, Slips Below $19
" Silver guru David Morgan told Silver Investing News that while he believes silver prices will stay down in the short term, the fact that there is “only so much silver available under $20 an ounce” means that prices will eventually be pressured upward."
" Silver guru David Morgan told Silver Investing News that while he believes silver prices will stay down in the short term, the fact that there is “only so much silver available under $20 an ounce” means that prices will eventually be pressured upward."
Aurcana Announces $50 million Loan Facility
"...it has accepted an indicative terms sheet from
RK Mine Finance, part of the Red Kite Group, one of the largest metal merchants in the world, for an unsecured 3 year loan facility of $50 million and silver Offtake Agreement for the silver produced at the Shafter mine"
Med tanke på att Shafter inte fungerat och Aurcana saknat stark kassa så har det säkert funnits en oro över finansiering som bidragit mycket till att trycka ner kursen i Aurcana såhär mycket. Återstår att se hur mycket högre kursen stabiliserar sig till nu. Men det är en positiv nyhet att man säkrat finansiering nu när hela PM-branschen är under press med fallande silverpris samtidigt som Aurcana haft problem att få igång Shafters produktion.
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