LUPE analys TP 160 SEK

Lundin Petroleum (OMX: LUPE; TSX: LUP; Sector Perform; SEK160 Price Target)
A result from the RWE-operated Sverdrup prospect in the Norwegian Sea has been delayed
by challenging drilling conditions, with the well being sidetracked to reach target depth of
5,500m. Located on the underexplored Utgard High, success could unlock substantial followon
potential. We assume a 350mmboe oil-weighted prospect (LUPE 30%), with
upside/downside of +SEK7.75/-SEK0.90 per share. Partner Marathon Oil has stated that it
believes the play could hold 1.4-3bnboe across multiple Jurassic and Cretaceous prospects.

We have increased our PV8% risked NAV to SEK154/share from SEK153/share following the
Gotha oil discovery (LUPE 40% and operator) in the Barents Sea. The result endorses
management’s long-held view that their acreage between the Snøhvit gas field and Statoil’s
Johan Castberg oil discoveries was oil-prone. The result should de-risk similar prospects in
the area and we expect Lundin to return to the Barents Sea with a multi-well campaign in
2014. Appraisal drilling is required to narrow the 60-145mmbbl resource range for the oil
discovery, while we expect the 275-545Bcf gas cap to be used for gas injection. However, it
could also be combined