Denna översikt är gjord av en svensk aktieägare som kallar sig The Swede.
Källa
fredag 24 maj 2013
Sino agro Food kommande presentation hos Penser och Q1
Sino Agro Foods ledning kommer presentera bolaget hos Penser den 28 maj. Jag kommer närvara på presentationen och rapportera här på bloggen efteråt.
SIAF har rapporterat nytt rekord för avslutat kvartal Q1 2013
Intäkterna ökade hela 245% till 55,1 MUSD och nettoinkomsten ökade 191% till 16,4 MUSD.
Detta motsvarar EPS 0,16 USD/aktie före utspädning och 0,14 USD/aktie efter utspädning.
Sino Agro Food, Inc. Reports Record Quarterly Revenue of $55.1M with EPS of $.16
Jag kan passa på nämna att Sino Agro Food har en upplysande sida på facebook
SIAF har rapporterat nytt rekord för avslutat kvartal Q1 2013
Intäkterna ökade hela 245% till 55,1 MUSD och nettoinkomsten ökade 191% till 16,4 MUSD.
Detta motsvarar EPS 0,16 USD/aktie före utspädning och 0,14 USD/aktie efter utspädning.
Sino Agro Food, Inc. Reports Record Quarterly Revenue of $55.1M with EPS of $.16
Jag kan passa på nämna att Sino Agro Food har en upplysande sida på facebook
tisdag 7 maj 2013
Bra artikel från 15 april om Guldkraschen
How the gold market was crashed
There’s been a recent huge draw down of physical gold at the New York COMEX and at the JPMorgan Chase depository. Look at the physical market draw down on the charts below. It has taken a drastic plunge.
HOUSTON -- we have a problem.
Physical inventory drawdown at JPM
Charts by Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com
Physical Drawdown at COMEX
Charts by Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com
You can imagine the dilemma this is causing for the market interests behind these inventories. If the inventory runs out and one cannot meet deliveries, then it has to be bought on the open market. Not only that but it could cause a run up in prices that would hurt the shorts in the market.
So what to do?
The only way out of this dilemma for the market controllers would be to devise a plan that would collapse the market and trip up all the stops at the correction lows in gold of $1,525 thereby setting off the stop loss orders under this important market low. And what if the plan included a way to stop the physical market from purchasing gold under $1,525 while that correction was underway? That would be brilliant.
And how can that happen?
They have to hatch a plan and carefully orchestrate it in a series of events that takes the gold market completely by surprise and force players out of their long positions.
Read on for today’s lesson in market manipulation and allow me to relay my speculation about what transpired last week.
A successful ambush usually involves surprise. And the surprise requires a carefully orchestrated setup. So now let’s get a look at how the crash was prepared.
The FOMC minutes from the last meeting were due for release during last week. But a funny thing happened. They got released EARLIER than expected. It was all a big mistake and the FED let the SEC and the CFTC know right away that the error had occurred. And lo and behold, despite the FED’s transparency and newly crafted reputation for delivering timely and accurate reports, there happened to be some language we didn’t get updated on until the FOMC minutes were released. The notes say that several members have been discussing cutting back on the stimulus. That was strike one. It got the gold market thinking that stimulus cuts might be coming.
Strike one called by the umpire.
Surprise number two appears.
A bombshell was released from news sources. It was reported that Cyprus would have to sell 400 million Euro’s of gold as part of the bailout package of raising money for their failed banking system. Gold prices came down to $1,550 on the news and the day passed by. Even though Cyprus bankers tell us the next day that they didn't discuss selling any gold, market jitters remained with Friday just around the corner.
This was strike two.
Now we need a strike three and you’re out.
Gold is a nervous market to begin with as a lot of people have already lost a lot of money in the last six months. With Gold at $1,550, all that is needed for the market to drop is to get one more push where all the stops are. This price level was just below the two-year low of $1,525.
With the setup in place the final pitch was ready to be delivered.
Selling began in the Friday sessions overseas. By time we got to the New York COMEX gold open, price was down to $1,542. Now all the players were on the scene, in the game and ready with volume and liquidity to create the final blow to the gold market.
Then the attack began. Wave after wave of selling pummeled gold until it got to $1,525. Then the break down of price below the two year low and all the stops that have been accumulating there start getting executed. Selling then accelerates as it begins to feed on itself.
The physical market for gold sees this massive stop loss explosion as a gift and gets ready to make their move to buy up the gold on the cheap.
Now comes the part that is pure genius or a total coincidental thing that just so happens to be a gift to those who are short the market and those who would be responsible to deliver gold should the inventory deplete.
ALL OF A SUDDEN THE LONDON PHYSICAL PLATFORM THAT BUYS AND SELLS PHYSICAL GOLD GETS LOCKED UP. THE SYSTEM FREEZES.
The screens all freeze.
What does that mean?
No one can get to the physical market to buy at these low prices but at the same time, they can’t sell or protect their positions either. The system is frozen. Yes, just like at Bit-coin. The system locks up. And of course the results are going to be the same, just on a lower percentage level.
What can the physical holders do?
Meanwhile the futures market continues to drop.
So what happens? The physical market holders begin to panic. How can they protect themselves as they can’t sell either?
What would you do if you were in that situation?
There is only one solution, especially during a panic. Short and ask questions later.
Therefore it is my speculation that based on 350,000 contracts sold on Friday and the massive drop in price; some of those contracts were a result of the physical market having no choice but to enter into the futures markets to hedge their physical position holdings by selling contracts or shorting the market.
Their choice was either this solution, or wait until Monday and be subject to potentially heavy losses should margin calls go out over the weekend. With no time to think and survival instinct kicking in, the physical holders most likely did what they could to protect themselves. They went in and shorted the futures market.
At this point the market goes into a free fall as the physical market can’t buy at these low prices because the computer system is down; they can only sell futures to hedge their long physical holdings and so they do what they have to and begin selling futures.
Now it gets worse. As the price drops even more, underfunded players are getting wiped out and now they begin to liquidate. The market goes into a total collapse as all the stops below $1,500 get tripped up and the market tanks to $1,490.
The market finally closes in New York and returns to the $1,500 area.
But it’s not over. There's another situation going on. The weekend is arriving and players begin wondering about margin calls. How are holders going to get money to their brokers over the weekend for the Monday trade session?
But there is not enough liquidity as the COMEX has closed and only the aftermarket GLOBEX is there to execute trades.
Without a doubt, the shorts know exactly what is about to transpire.
As the market players begin to work this out in their mind there is only one thing left to do. Try and exit and get out in the Globex market. So the selling begins again. The market hits below $1,500 and then $1,490 get broken. The market sells as much as it can up until the very last minute of trade at 5PM New York time. Even then it’s not over. For some reason the volume and the price keeps moving. Was there special consideration going on for those connected who wanted out? I don't know. But at 5:07 PM Eastern standard time the market closes at 352,248 contracts and a price of $1,476.10 down a whopping 5.67%, or $88.80.
And this should not surprise you -
The banks and brokers are open all weekend and as long as it takes to go through all the accounts and issue all the MARGIN calls.
If they get the margin calls out by Saturday, the customers have 24 hours to get more money to their brokers. If the money is not received by Sunday night or Monday morning, the positions will have to be liquidated, just when the market is at its lowest liquidity and the longs have had all weekend to think about it and the media has had time to tell everyone that the bull market in gold is over.
I hope you understand the picture of how the control boys forced a major sell off. I speculate the panic over low gold inventory had someone hatch a plan to save their accounts and a lot that was at stake for them.
The plot began with leaked information with explosive potential changes in USA policy, and continued with published information that Europe/Cyprus would have to sell 400 million Euro's of physical gold. Finally, once the sell-off began the physical gold market platform in London locks up and no one has buy or sell access in the physical spot market.
Did the control boys lock down the physical market platform or was it pure coincidence? Either way they have total plausible deniability. HOW?
The computer system went down. It couldn’t handle the traffic and it shut down or a glitch happened in the server. It can be any one of many reasons.
This exact same thing happened during the last take down of gold in late December 2011.
VOILA. The perfect excuse and the perfect scenario.
The physical markets couldn’t buy at those low prices. Let me repeat that. The physical markets couldn’t buy. They could only sell futures to hedge their physical gold positions.
Of course this will all be reported on the news and in the financials right?
Wrong.
None of it will be reported as none of it was reported on Dec. 29, 2011 when the control boys did the same thing and locked out the computer and left the physical market holding the bag. Not one word hit the papers.
Most people are not even aware that the physical market is run by computers. They have never considered or thought about how the physical market works and executes. Guess what folks? It works the same way as futures via computers and programs.
How do you think it works? Did you think that people show up with all their gold at an auction house and buying and bidding goes on with a mediator who can speak two hundred words a minute and gold is auctioned off like rugs or art?
No it runs off a computer system.
How do I know all of this happened on Friday?
Because I was in direct contact with a big physical dealer out of the mid-east as it was happening. They took the time to explain the physical market to me — how the physical dealers get SHUT out of the game — as happened before during the last panic (and physical shortage) in December 2011.
Here is the screen shot of the actual physical market in action from Jan. 4, 2012 that the physical trader sent me.
There's a term for this manipulative tactic in the trading world. It's called "Beat the Beehive." You smash the nest and then watch the total confusion feed on itself. By the next day all the bees are gone and all that's left is a smashed up beehive.
There has been a lot of speculation on the markets and manipulation that is going on. What I’ve offered in this report using the fact that gold crashed on Friday is a scenario on how it could have been orchestrated. I leave it to the reader to pass judgment on the potential.
At 8:33 AM Friday morning with gold just beginning to trade, GoldTrends listed a potential for $1,490 on twitter if $1,525 was taken out. Here is the chart of the COMEX session. Note the low. That blue channel line was what we based our projection potential on. The rest as they say is history.
What Next?
I will be assessing the damage over the week.
If there really is a shortage then there will be clues that should show up that should show up in the physical markets. We will be on the watch for them if they develop. If we see these clues we will advise subscribers as they develop. The last system lock out was on Dec. 29, 2011. The clues showed up then and a $270 rally took place from $1,525 to $1,795 by Feb. 29. Interestingly on Feb. 29, gold fell $100 an ounce on a Bernanke announcement that the Fed was considering slowing down on QE.
Let me say this. IF the Feds were to slow down on QE, the entire system would collapse in a major deflationary spiral. In a speech two months ago at a college Mr. Bernanke admitted that the FED always tries to "talk" control or what they want to see happen. When that doesn't work they expand to other more important methods of policy.
There are only two things that can bring gold down: A manipulated event like we just saw or a liquidity squeeze like we saw in 2008 where an immediate need for cash forced the liquidation of all assets.
Can it happen again?
Yes, but this time it would be on a global scale and much more powerful than the Lehman crisis of 2008. While many think a sovereign default would create an inflationary spiral, it’s the opposite that could happen. A default would result in liquidation and 99 cents out of every dollar in the banking system has been lent out. The need for cold hard cash would be enormous and the only way to get it to avoid leverage margin calls would be to sell assets at a low enough price to attract immediate cash. That is what happened in 2008. With one penny in banks and 99 cents of debt a spiral the other way could develop.
But you say the FEDS could print the money. Would they have time?
Once a deflationary collapse takes place, then a HYPER INFLATIONARY event can take place. But this is all for another report.
Stay tuned as it's probably going to get real interesting.
How the gold market was crashed
There’s been a recent huge draw down of physical gold at the New York COMEX and at the JPMorgan Chase depository. Look at the physical market draw down on the charts below. It has taken a drastic plunge.
HOUSTON -- we have a problem.
Physical inventory drawdown at JPM
Charts by Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com
Physical Drawdown at COMEX
Charts by Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com
You can imagine the dilemma this is causing for the market interests behind these inventories. If the inventory runs out and one cannot meet deliveries, then it has to be bought on the open market. Not only that but it could cause a run up in prices that would hurt the shorts in the market.
So what to do?
The only way out of this dilemma for the market controllers would be to devise a plan that would collapse the market and trip up all the stops at the correction lows in gold of $1,525 thereby setting off the stop loss orders under this important market low. And what if the plan included a way to stop the physical market from purchasing gold under $1,525 while that correction was underway? That would be brilliant.
And how can that happen?
They have to hatch a plan and carefully orchestrate it in a series of events that takes the gold market completely by surprise and force players out of their long positions.
Read on for today’s lesson in market manipulation and allow me to relay my speculation about what transpired last week.
A successful ambush usually involves surprise. And the surprise requires a carefully orchestrated setup. So now let’s get a look at how the crash was prepared.
The FOMC minutes from the last meeting were due for release during last week. But a funny thing happened. They got released EARLIER than expected. It was all a big mistake and the FED let the SEC and the CFTC know right away that the error had occurred. And lo and behold, despite the FED’s transparency and newly crafted reputation for delivering timely and accurate reports, there happened to be some language we didn’t get updated on until the FOMC minutes were released. The notes say that several members have been discussing cutting back on the stimulus. That was strike one. It got the gold market thinking that stimulus cuts might be coming.
Strike one called by the umpire.
Surprise number two appears.
A bombshell was released from news sources. It was reported that Cyprus would have to sell 400 million Euro’s of gold as part of the bailout package of raising money for their failed banking system. Gold prices came down to $1,550 on the news and the day passed by. Even though Cyprus bankers tell us the next day that they didn't discuss selling any gold, market jitters remained with Friday just around the corner.
This was strike two.
Now we need a strike three and you’re out.
Gold is a nervous market to begin with as a lot of people have already lost a lot of money in the last six months. With Gold at $1,550, all that is needed for the market to drop is to get one more push where all the stops are. This price level was just below the two-year low of $1,525.
With the setup in place the final pitch was ready to be delivered.
Selling began in the Friday sessions overseas. By time we got to the New York COMEX gold open, price was down to $1,542. Now all the players were on the scene, in the game and ready with volume and liquidity to create the final blow to the gold market.
Then the attack began. Wave after wave of selling pummeled gold until it got to $1,525. Then the break down of price below the two year low and all the stops that have been accumulating there start getting executed. Selling then accelerates as it begins to feed on itself.
The physical market for gold sees this massive stop loss explosion as a gift and gets ready to make their move to buy up the gold on the cheap.
Now comes the part that is pure genius or a total coincidental thing that just so happens to be a gift to those who are short the market and those who would be responsible to deliver gold should the inventory deplete.
ALL OF A SUDDEN THE LONDON PHYSICAL PLATFORM THAT BUYS AND SELLS PHYSICAL GOLD GETS LOCKED UP. THE SYSTEM FREEZES.
The screens all freeze.
What does that mean?
No one can get to the physical market to buy at these low prices but at the same time, they can’t sell or protect their positions either. The system is frozen. Yes, just like at Bit-coin. The system locks up. And of course the results are going to be the same, just on a lower percentage level.
What can the physical holders do?
Meanwhile the futures market continues to drop.
So what happens? The physical market holders begin to panic. How can they protect themselves as they can’t sell either?
What would you do if you were in that situation?
There is only one solution, especially during a panic. Short and ask questions later.
Therefore it is my speculation that based on 350,000 contracts sold on Friday and the massive drop in price; some of those contracts were a result of the physical market having no choice but to enter into the futures markets to hedge their physical position holdings by selling contracts or shorting the market.
Their choice was either this solution, or wait until Monday and be subject to potentially heavy losses should margin calls go out over the weekend. With no time to think and survival instinct kicking in, the physical holders most likely did what they could to protect themselves. They went in and shorted the futures market.
At this point the market goes into a free fall as the physical market can’t buy at these low prices because the computer system is down; they can only sell futures to hedge their long physical holdings and so they do what they have to and begin selling futures.
Now it gets worse. As the price drops even more, underfunded players are getting wiped out and now they begin to liquidate. The market goes into a total collapse as all the stops below $1,500 get tripped up and the market tanks to $1,490.
The market finally closes in New York and returns to the $1,500 area.
But it’s not over. There's another situation going on. The weekend is arriving and players begin wondering about margin calls. How are holders going to get money to their brokers over the weekend for the Monday trade session?
But there is not enough liquidity as the COMEX has closed and only the aftermarket GLOBEX is there to execute trades.
Without a doubt, the shorts know exactly what is about to transpire.
As the market players begin to work this out in their mind there is only one thing left to do. Try and exit and get out in the Globex market. So the selling begins again. The market hits below $1,500 and then $1,490 get broken. The market sells as much as it can up until the very last minute of trade at 5PM New York time. Even then it’s not over. For some reason the volume and the price keeps moving. Was there special consideration going on for those connected who wanted out? I don't know. But at 5:07 PM Eastern standard time the market closes at 352,248 contracts and a price of $1,476.10 down a whopping 5.67%, or $88.80.
And this should not surprise you -
The banks and brokers are open all weekend and as long as it takes to go through all the accounts and issue all the MARGIN calls.
If they get the margin calls out by Saturday, the customers have 24 hours to get more money to their brokers. If the money is not received by Sunday night or Monday morning, the positions will have to be liquidated, just when the market is at its lowest liquidity and the longs have had all weekend to think about it and the media has had time to tell everyone that the bull market in gold is over.
I hope you understand the picture of how the control boys forced a major sell off. I speculate the panic over low gold inventory had someone hatch a plan to save their accounts and a lot that was at stake for them.
The plot began with leaked information with explosive potential changes in USA policy, and continued with published information that Europe/Cyprus would have to sell 400 million Euro's of physical gold. Finally, once the sell-off began the physical gold market platform in London locks up and no one has buy or sell access in the physical spot market.
Did the control boys lock down the physical market platform or was it pure coincidence? Either way they have total plausible deniability. HOW?
The computer system went down. It couldn’t handle the traffic and it shut down or a glitch happened in the server. It can be any one of many reasons.
This exact same thing happened during the last take down of gold in late December 2011.
VOILA. The perfect excuse and the perfect scenario.
The physical markets couldn’t buy at those low prices. Let me repeat that. The physical markets couldn’t buy. They could only sell futures to hedge their physical gold positions.
Of course this will all be reported on the news and in the financials right?
Wrong.
None of it will be reported as none of it was reported on Dec. 29, 2011 when the control boys did the same thing and locked out the computer and left the physical market holding the bag. Not one word hit the papers.
Most people are not even aware that the physical market is run by computers. They have never considered or thought about how the physical market works and executes. Guess what folks? It works the same way as futures via computers and programs.
How do you think it works? Did you think that people show up with all their gold at an auction house and buying and bidding goes on with a mediator who can speak two hundred words a minute and gold is auctioned off like rugs or art?
No it runs off a computer system.
How do I know all of this happened on Friday?
Because I was in direct contact with a big physical dealer out of the mid-east as it was happening. They took the time to explain the physical market to me — how the physical dealers get SHUT out of the game — as happened before during the last panic (and physical shortage) in December 2011.
Here is the screen shot of the actual physical market in action from Jan. 4, 2012 that the physical trader sent me.
There's a term for this manipulative tactic in the trading world. It's called "Beat the Beehive." You smash the nest and then watch the total confusion feed on itself. By the next day all the bees are gone and all that's left is a smashed up beehive.
There has been a lot of speculation on the markets and manipulation that is going on. What I’ve offered in this report using the fact that gold crashed on Friday is a scenario on how it could have been orchestrated. I leave it to the reader to pass judgment on the potential.
At 8:33 AM Friday morning with gold just beginning to trade, GoldTrends listed a potential for $1,490 on twitter if $1,525 was taken out. Here is the chart of the COMEX session. Note the low. That blue channel line was what we based our projection potential on. The rest as they say is history.
What Next?
I will be assessing the damage over the week.
If there really is a shortage then there will be clues that should show up that should show up in the physical markets. We will be on the watch for them if they develop. If we see these clues we will advise subscribers as they develop. The last system lock out was on Dec. 29, 2011. The clues showed up then and a $270 rally took place from $1,525 to $1,795 by Feb. 29. Interestingly on Feb. 29, gold fell $100 an ounce on a Bernanke announcement that the Fed was considering slowing down on QE.
Let me say this. IF the Feds were to slow down on QE, the entire system would collapse in a major deflationary spiral. In a speech two months ago at a college Mr. Bernanke admitted that the FED always tries to "talk" control or what they want to see happen. When that doesn't work they expand to other more important methods of policy.
There are only two things that can bring gold down: A manipulated event like we just saw or a liquidity squeeze like we saw in 2008 where an immediate need for cash forced the liquidation of all assets.
Can it happen again?
Yes, but this time it would be on a global scale and much more powerful than the Lehman crisis of 2008. While many think a sovereign default would create an inflationary spiral, it’s the opposite that could happen. A default would result in liquidation and 99 cents out of every dollar in the banking system has been lent out. The need for cold hard cash would be enormous and the only way to get it to avoid leverage margin calls would be to sell assets at a low enough price to attract immediate cash. That is what happened in 2008. With one penny in banks and 99 cents of debt a spiral the other way could develop.
But you say the FEDS could print the money. Would they have time?
Once a deflationary collapse takes place, then a HYPER INFLATIONARY event can take place. But this is all for another report.
Stay tuned as it's probably going to get real interesting.
How the gold market was crashed
måndag 4 mars 2013
Hur företag som Facebook & google mfl tjänar pengar
hur företag som Dropbox, Facebook, Kickstarter, Spotify, Twitter, Google och Instagram egentligen tjänar pengar
How Your Favorite Internet Companies Make Money
How Your Favorite Internet Companies Make Money
måndag 11 februari 2013
Aurcana utökar La Negra och hittat lite guldhalter
Aurcana har släppt PR (se länk nedan för PDF) med info om man hittat lite guldhalter förutom Silver-, zink- och blyhalter Nordväst och Nordöst om La Negra gruvan.
Mr. Lenic Rodriguez, Aurcana’s President & CEO, states:" We are very pleased to report today significant exploration results and new discoveries at La Negra. The presence of gold associated with strong silver, zinc and lead values in new areas tested is very encouraging. While historically gold production has not been a major source of revenue at La Negra, and the potential economic significance of these results is not known, these results are of strong interest to us. The ramp-up at Shafter, increase in mining capacity at La Negra and excellent exploration results, are indeed exciting times for Aurcana."
Highlights
• Zona Aurifera I, returned strong assay values including: o 15.3 gm/t Au and 261 gm/t Ag;
o 12 gm/t Au and 105 gm/t Ag;
o 10.0 gm/t Au and 381 gm/t Ag;
• Zona Aurifera II also returned strong assay values including: o 2.8 gm/t Au and 229 gm/t Ag;
o 2.4 gm/t Au and 307 gm/t Ag;
Observera speciellt de avslutande orden i nyheten:
"The potential for extensions of these resources in the upper portion of the mountain and the deep extensions have not been pursued since Aurcana acquired the property. As such, these results are seen to be a step towards recognizing the greater potential of the La Negra mineralized zones."
Bolaget tror alltså att detta tyder på att La Negra i själva verket kan vara mycket större än vad den nu är uppmätt. Att detta är ett första steg mot att avtäcka den större potentialen hos La Negra.
Aurcana news release - 11-02-2013
• Zona Aurifera I, returned strong assay values including: o 15.3 gm/t Au and 261 gm/t Ag;
o 12 gm/t Au and 105 gm/t Ag;
o 10.0 gm/t Au and 381 gm/t Ag;
• Zona Aurifera II also returned strong assay values including: o 2.8 gm/t Au and 229 gm/t Ag;
o 2.4 gm/t Au and 307 gm/t Ag;
Observera speciellt de avslutande orden i nyheten:
"The potential for extensions of these resources in the upper portion of the mountain and the deep extensions have not been pursued since Aurcana acquired the property. As such, these results are seen to be a step towards recognizing the greater potential of the La Negra mineralized zones."
Bolaget tror alltså att detta tyder på att La Negra i själva verket kan vara mycket större än vad den nu är uppmätt. Att detta är ett första steg mot att avtäcka den större potentialen hos La Negra.
Aurcana news release - 11-02-2013
söndag 10 februari 2013
Trader Dan - mycket bra inlägg om ekonominska krisen
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet - A Proxy for US Equity Markets
Note that I am only using the total of their Securities holdings and not the entirety of the data that goes into constructing the overall size of the balance sheet. In other words, I am excluding loans from the Discount Window, swaps and other assets that go into making up the entirety of their available credit. In other words, I am being "conservative". If you take those other factors into account, the size of the balance sheet of the Fed is already over $3 TRILLION!
Even at this, it still provides a
very compelling picture of why US equities continue to plumb new highs
nearly month after month in spite of the anemic at best growth in the
underlying economy.
I maintain that the Fed has
engineered one of the most massive bouts of INFLATION in the STOCK
MARKET since its inception a century ago. Can you see the connection
between the overall size of the Fed's Balance Sheet and the level of the
S&P 500?
This is by design of course since in
our new, modern age of ignorance, these monetary wizards believe that
they can create lasting prosperity by forcing untold amounts of freshly
minted liquidity into stocks jamming those prices higher and thereby
influencing consumer sentiment. A rising stock market provides cover for
all manner of other economic woes, and political woes, I might add. The
low information citizen takes one look over at the DOW or the S&P
500 and then falsely assumes that all is well with the world and then
goes about his or her business without delving any deeper into these
matters. This is of course further propagated by the blind lemmings who
constitute the majority of analysts out there on financial TV who
breathlessly talk about the wonderful rally in stocks heralding the
beginning of solid, sustained economy vitality. Idiots! (Sorry, I could
not help myself on this one).
The opposite is true when stock
prices are collapsing. Consumers begin to move from concern, to worry,
to fear and to outright panic and then most worrisome to the elites,
anger as they look for scapegoats.
As I have stated many times now on
this site, if it was this easy to create prosperity, it would have been
figured out a long, long time ago by previous generations, which unlike
this current one, were actually capable of critical analysis. Let's call
this current Federal Reserve strategy: "PROSPERITY IN A BOTTLE". It is
akin to a cologne for men. Just splash some on and forego the shower for
the time being as the aroma masks the smell from a day's perspiration.
What the Fed has done is to cover up
the stench from the debt overload and rampant speculation its policies
have created in our financial system. The deeply-rooted structural
issues have been left unblemished in their vigor.
Do not forget this one thing - ultra low interest rates benefit TWO GROUPS at the EXPENSE OF SAVERS.
FIRST - the borrower and
SECOND - the large speculator/hedge
fund which borrows money for basically no cost and then LEVERAGES that
money in speculative bets. Where do you think all that liquidity that
the Fed has shoved into the marketplace has gone???? the answer - into
equities!
Lastly, here is one more look at the
level of the S&P 500 seen through the prism of gold. First look at
the S&P in NOMINAL TERMS. Note that the Fed's machinations have
jammed it to within a whisker's breadth of its all time CLOSING HIGH
made back in late 2007 just before the bottom dropped out of the index
and it lost 50% of its value over the next year and a half. "Wonderful,
Superb, Splendid, Impressive" all are adjectives being used to describe
the "recovery" in stock prices.
Now take a look at the same chart
when the price level of the S&P 500 index is compared to the value
of one ounce of gold. Note that "recovery" seen in the nominal index off
the 2009 low doesn't seem like all that much now does it? Translation
from all this - Fed induced RAMPANT INFLATION OF PAPER ASSETS; nothing
more. Traders of course can go with the flow of money into equities as
long as they do not mistake this equity rally as the herald of a new era
of lasting prosperity. When the music finally does stop, and the
players rush to find their chairs, many are going to be left standing
looking for a place to sit and coming up empty.
fredag 8 februari 2013
Gårdagens Late edition om guld i Sydafrika
Last year we saw the immense magnitude of fiscal irre- sponsibility from the majority of government’s which caused immense market turmoil. This year, investors are looking to these governments as to how they will eliminate, or at least slow down, the degree of deterioration happen- ing, specifically getting their debt levels under control. Lit- tle’s been done by any of them, be they in Europe or the US as it has been mostly chatter to date.
With all the money governments are printing, gold bugs have been disappointed that the price of gold has not cata- pulted into the $2000 to $3000 range or higher. When you look at the 5 year chart, gold has been a great hedge against the markets, just not as much as the gold bugs would like as conspiracy theories abound. Now if you have invested in gold companies, you have truly been disappointed as they have in no way mirrored what gold has done as these charts show. Standard issues mining companies face include con- trolling costs, commodity price fluctuations and environ- mental issues to name but a few
IAMGOLD CORP. SEMAFO INC. OREZONEGOLD RIVERSTONE RES. AFRICAN GOLD VOLTA RES.
(T-IMG) $8.74 +0.09 (T-SMF) $2.83 -0.03 (T-ORE) $1.58 -0.04 (V-RVS) $0.425 -0.01 (V-AGG) $0.17 -0.015 (T-VTR) $0.40 -0.02
One area of the world that used to be a hot bed for gold was Africa and African gold companies will likely continue to face severe challenges...where’s the bottom?
Mining industry big-wigs gather in Cape Town, South Africa this week between Feb 4th to 7th for the 19th an- nual “African Mining Indaba”, billed as the “world’s larg- est mining investment conference.” There will be a lot of discussion on social and environmental issues, so much so, due to the recent deterioration of conditions, the final day of the event is devoted to this.
According to US broker JP Morgan (JPM), Africa’s mining industry (specifically the South) is in crisis with its gold producers facing another tough year.
In an overview of the sector this past Monday, JPM said it can see few catalysts for a rise in the valuations of major South African gold miners even though it expects the price of gold to rise steadily over the year.
There’s a migration out of South Africa towards West Africa, even though it’s more virgin territory. While the grade of the gold in West Africa is not as high as in South Africa, there are other big advantages. Government rela- tions are better, labour conflicts are fewer, taxes and roy- alties are often lower and costs are more predictable.
Mining production in South Africa is falling steeply with a 13-per-cent decline last year alone and new inves- tors are looking to West Africa instead. Burkina Faso (West Africa) has a reputation for political stability with the same authoritarian government in power since 1987. But there could be cracks in that stability.
JPM expects the gold price to trade up toward $1,800/ oz by mid-year and average US$1,763 over the year. When we asked our Nicholas Campbell what his thoughts were on a recent report from Credit Suisse that discussed, “Gold, the end of an era?” he doesn’t buy it. Nicholas tells us, “I don’t really think it is an end of the era for gold. If anything, we continue to see everybody trying to devalue their currencies and that should be supportive for gold.
The other thing is Central Banks continue to be signifi- cant net buyers of gold and again, that’s going to have an impact in the gold market. There is a lot of physical gold that’s going to get moved around in the next year or so, as an example, you have Germany repatriating all or most of its gold. That suggests to me that gold is in demand. Now can gold go down? Absolutely it can. Are we going to see new highs this year? I don’t know, but generally speaking the whole reason why we’ve been bullish on gold has been because of the amount of money that’s been pumped into the system.
The other aspect is obviously the devaluation of cur- rencies in general and improved outlook for gold as an alternative currency which I think is supported by the Central Banks continuing to add to their holdings.
Some African specific issues include:
• “He who has the biggest gun has the power”. This is why one of my clients in the Canadian military won’t go near anything associated with Africa after spend- ing time there. It’s amazing how many African states/ territories are currently involved in a war or experi- encing post-war conflict and tension. The one getting most of the news of late is France battling to weed out al-Qaeda & its allies out of Mali. Last we checked, out of the 54 recognized states/territories in Africa, at least 17 were involved in some kind of war or conflict. • Over 30 South African gold companies, including big names such as AngloGold Ashanti, Goldfields and Harmony Gold, face class action litigation that alleges they knew of the dangers posed to miners by silica dust for more than a century.
• Deadly strikes left 44 dead at Lonmin's Marikana platinum mine in South Africa highlight "structural problems" in the country which could damage investment, Fitch rating agency said.
It all makes you wonder why one would consider working/investing in Africa. Oh yes, greed...is there an opportunity staring right at us in all this turmoil?
With all the money governments are printing, gold bugs have been disappointed that the price of gold has not cata- pulted into the $2000 to $3000 range or higher. When you look at the 5 year chart, gold has been a great hedge against the markets, just not as much as the gold bugs would like as conspiracy theories abound. Now if you have invested in gold companies, you have truly been disappointed as they have in no way mirrored what gold has done as these charts show. Standard issues mining companies face include con- trolling costs, commodity price fluctuations and environ- mental issues to name but a few
IAMGOLD CORP. SEMAFO INC. OREZONEGOLD RIVERSTONE RES. AFRICAN GOLD VOLTA RES.
(T-IMG) $8.74 +0.09 (T-SMF) $2.83 -0.03 (T-ORE) $1.58 -0.04 (V-RVS) $0.425 -0.01 (V-AGG) $0.17 -0.015 (T-VTR) $0.40 -0.02
One area of the world that used to be a hot bed for gold was Africa and African gold companies will likely continue to face severe challenges...where’s the bottom?
Mining industry big-wigs gather in Cape Town, South Africa this week between Feb 4th to 7th for the 19th an- nual “African Mining Indaba”, billed as the “world’s larg- est mining investment conference.” There will be a lot of discussion on social and environmental issues, so much so, due to the recent deterioration of conditions, the final day of the event is devoted to this.
According to US broker JP Morgan (JPM), Africa’s mining industry (specifically the South) is in crisis with its gold producers facing another tough year.
In an overview of the sector this past Monday, JPM said it can see few catalysts for a rise in the valuations of major South African gold miners even though it expects the price of gold to rise steadily over the year.
There’s a migration out of South Africa towards West Africa, even though it’s more virgin territory. While the grade of the gold in West Africa is not as high as in South Africa, there are other big advantages. Government rela- tions are better, labour conflicts are fewer, taxes and roy- alties are often lower and costs are more predictable.
Mining production in South Africa is falling steeply with a 13-per-cent decline last year alone and new inves- tors are looking to West Africa instead. Burkina Faso (West Africa) has a reputation for political stability with the same authoritarian government in power since 1987. But there could be cracks in that stability.
JPM expects the gold price to trade up toward $1,800/ oz by mid-year and average US$1,763 over the year. When we asked our Nicholas Campbell what his thoughts were on a recent report from Credit Suisse that discussed, “Gold, the end of an era?” he doesn’t buy it. Nicholas tells us, “I don’t really think it is an end of the era for gold. If anything, we continue to see everybody trying to devalue their currencies and that should be supportive for gold.
The other thing is Central Banks continue to be signifi- cant net buyers of gold and again, that’s going to have an impact in the gold market. There is a lot of physical gold that’s going to get moved around in the next year or so, as an example, you have Germany repatriating all or most of its gold. That suggests to me that gold is in demand. Now can gold go down? Absolutely it can. Are we going to see new highs this year? I don’t know, but generally speaking the whole reason why we’ve been bullish on gold has been because of the amount of money that’s been pumped into the system.
The other aspect is obviously the devaluation of cur- rencies in general and improved outlook for gold as an alternative currency which I think is supported by the Central Banks continuing to add to their holdings.
Some African specific issues include:
• “He who has the biggest gun has the power”. This is why one of my clients in the Canadian military won’t go near anything associated with Africa after spend- ing time there. It’s amazing how many African states/ territories are currently involved in a war or experi- encing post-war conflict and tension. The one getting most of the news of late is France battling to weed out al-Qaeda & its allies out of Mali. Last we checked, out of the 54 recognized states/territories in Africa, at least 17 were involved in some kind of war or conflict. • Over 30 South African gold companies, including big names such as AngloGold Ashanti, Goldfields and Harmony Gold, face class action litigation that alleges they knew of the dangers posed to miners by silica dust for more than a century.
• Deadly strikes left 44 dead at Lonmin's Marikana platinum mine in South Africa highlight "structural problems" in the country which could damage investment, Fitch rating agency said.
It all makes you wonder why one would consider working/investing in Africa. Oh yes, greed...is there an opportunity staring right at us in all this turmoil?
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