Most silver market players have long since resigned
themselves to the fact that the white metal’s average price for the year
will likely be significantly lower than was initially expected — back
in April, HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) cut its 2013 silver outlook to $26 per ounce from $33, while earlier this month Canaccord Genuity reduced its 12-month forecast to $23 per ounce from $32.50.
However, if recent reports from China and Japan are to be believed,
silver may be poised to benefit from an unexpected source of demand: the
solar power industry.
China and Japan step up
Though silver is perhaps best known as an investment tool, it is not
without other sources of demand, one of which is the solar industry.
In an article published
last week by Casey Research, Jeff Clark, senior precious metals analyst
at the firm, notes that while photovoltaic technology, the backbone of
the solar industry, did not begin registering on silver demand charts
until the turn of the millennium, the amount of silver consumed by solar
panel makers has risen approximately 50 percent per year since that
time.
Currently, it accounts for 5.6 percent of all industrial silver use,
but, as mentioned, two factors mean that amount may be set to increase.
The first is the fact that on July 4, China’s State Council said it
will stand behind a plan, originally put forward by the nation’s State
Grid, to raise China’s solar generating capacity to 35 gigawatts (GW) by
2015. That is 67 percent higher than the previous target of 21
gigawatts (GW) and will mean a yearly addition of 10 GW from 2013 to
2015, according to Clark.
Second, Japan, China’s western neighbor, will increase its solar
generation capacity by about 5.3 GW this year, David Franklin and David
Baker state in a Sprott’s Thoughts report.
Also this year, the country’s domestic solar power market is expected
to reach $19.8 billion, meaning that it will pass Germany as the world’s
largest solar market.
Potential market impact
The key question, of course, is exactly how much impact these factors will have on the silver market as a whole.
Franklin and Baker give a clear outline of their likely effects,
stating that as per information from the Silver Institute, making 1
megawatt of electricity requires up to 2.8 million ounces of the white
metal. If China and Japan end up increasing their solar generation
capacity by as much as they currently plan — a combined total of about
27 GW — together they will require around 91 million ounces of silver.
That’s up to 11 percent of global mine supply by 2012 numbers, a fairly
sizeable amount.
Looking longer term, they point out that silver used in solar panels
cannot be recycled; once it is used, it is gone forever. That means
solar generation has the potential to put ever-increasing pressure on
the silver market, particularly if other countries follow China and
Japan’s lead in upping their solar generation capacity. What’s an investor to do?
Franklin, Baker and Clark all appear to agree that the silver market
could benefit significantly if all goes as expected in China and Japan.
However, those who are not yet convinced should consider watching future
silver price forecasts to see whether they take the two countries’
plans into account; Franklin and Baker state that so far no 2013 silver
price forecasts have incorporated these announcements.
Investors who are ready to leap into the market might take a leaf out
of Clark’s book — he finishes his article by emphatically advising
investors to “buy silver now.”
Andra kvartalet blev resultatmässigt klart svagare än vi räknat med även
exkluderat nedskrivningen som görs av projektet OX-NLA. Framför allt är
det FoU-kostnaderna som dragit iväg mer än väntat. Zubsolv är nu
godkänt för den amerikanska marknaden och lansering planeras till i
början av september. Ett sinnrikt utformat avtal med
kontraktsförsäljningsorganisationen, Publicis Touchpoint Solutions, gör
det möjligt för Orexo att sälja Zubsolv på egen hand. Vi har efter
rapporten gjort relativt omfattande ändringar i våra prognoser, främst
till följd av den kommersiella strategi bolaget nu väljer. Ändringarna
ger ett starkt positivt utslag för vårt motiverade värde som ökar till
113 kronor per aktie (95 kronor).
"I put more faith in the gold side mostly because so much
silver is produced as a byproduct. Only about 25 percent of silver
actually comes from silver mines. Having silver mines shut down doesn’t
really have that big of an overall impact because so much of silver
still gets produced as a byproduct no matter what the price of silver
is. So we tend to look at gold from that perspective more than silver."
"And when I see mines shutting down because they can’t work at $1,250
gold, or $1,300 gold, more expansion projects being cancelled or
deferred, that tells me that we have hit a bottom. The supply side is
just not there. And once you see tightening on the supply side that puts
price pressure on the commodity. There are all sorts of other factors,
but having that price pressure sure helps. I do think it indicates we
are at a bottom."
Nya uppgifter pekar på att den nya dongeln Chromecast endast
var början då Google uppges arbeta på en förbättrad version av sin
tv-box.
I onsdags visade Google upp den nya tv-dongeln Chromecast
som låter användarna strömma ljud och bild från flera olika
webbtjänster till en tv-apparat. Chromecast styrs med en smartphone
eller surfplatta som kör Android.
En rapport i Wall Street Journal i
går avslöjar dock att Chromecast endast är en del i ny strategi från
Google. Enligt källor som talat med Wall Street Journal kommer den
tidigare satsningen på Google TV att få ett rejäl ansiktslyft med stöd
för både video kamera och en rörelsesensor likt Microsofts Kinect.
Googles chef för Android och Chrome,
Sundar Pichai, meddelade i en intervju att den nya versionen av Google
TV att bli en ”komplett Android-lösning för tv-apparater”. Han ville
dock inte avslöja några tekniska detaljer kring den nya versionen av
företagets tv-box.
Sundar Pichai uppger inte något
datum för när den uppdaterade versionen av Google TV kommer att bli
tillgänglig, men hoppas kunna visa upp en rad samarbetspartners på
CES-mässan nästa år.
Enligt en ny rapport är Google nu större än Facebook, Netflix och Instagram tillsammans på den nordamerikanska marknaden.
Vi visste sedan tidigare att
Google är stort på nätet, men en ny rapport som publicerades i går visar
i siffror hur stort företaget verkligen är.
Rapporten som är genomförd av det
amerikanska mätföretaget Deepfield visar att Google och företagets
tillhörande tjänster nu står för 25 procent av all internettrafik i
Nordamerika.
Det betyder enligt Deepfield att
sökjätten är nu större än Netflix, Facebook och Instagram tillsammans.
Det är en kraftig ökning de senaste tre åren. När Deepfields förra
rapport publicerades 2010 stod Google för cirka sex procent av all
internettrafik i Nordamerika.
Siffrorna baseras på mätningar av
trafiken som strömmar genom de största stamnäten i Nordamerika, samt
mätningar av både datorer och mobila enheter.
Ezra Gottheil på analysföretaget
Technology Business Research uppger att han inte är förvånad över de
senaste siffrorna och att Google ökat så kraftigt de senaste åren.
– Google skapar bra produkter. Jag skulle säga att Gmail, Youtube och Map står för den största delen av ökningen, säger Ezra Gottheil.
Enligt honom borde andra
internetföretag ta lärdom av Google och erbjuda produkter eller verktyg
som hjälper användarna att hitta information och kommunicera på ett
enkelt sätt.
Spartacusinvest har kortfattat i ett blogginlägg om Yara och Kina kommenterat SIAF. "Se till exempel Sino Agro Food
ett bolag jag efter en förfrågan tittade lite snabbt på men snabbt
tackade nej tack till. Svårtolkad balansräkning och ett icke existerande
kassaflöde gjorde inte saken svår."
"Yara är heller inte en "walk in the park". Inget inom jordbruk är det.
Som jag påtalat förut så är framtiden alltid osäker. Det finns en mängd
faktorer som är svåra att förutspå. Jag väljer dock alla dagar i veckan
hellre ett bolag som uppvisar ett positivt kassaflöde, ger relativt goda
utdelningar och har en stark balansräkning med kassa och reala
tillgångar än ett bolag som betalar
sina räkningar genom att trycka upp nya aktier, tillgångarna består av
landrättigheter och redovisade vinster består av fordringar."
Det är sant Sino Agro Food betalat räkningar genom att trycka upp aktier, den största delen av bolagets tillgångar är landsrättigheterna och kassaflödet är inget att tala om hitills.
Men det är ett företag inom uppbyggnad, som återinvesterar allt och satsar på växa snabbt. "Bära eller brista" är väl konceptet. Det kommer nog förmodligen bära men är ju givetvis högrisk innan bolaget blivit starkt kassaflödespositivt. Men har prognostiserats att SIAF kommer bli just "starkt kassaflödespositivt" till nästa år. När det inträffat kommer värderingen att bli en annan. Den försiktige avvaktar. Men man måste chansa ibland för att kunna vinna.
Silver Investing News (SIN) recently had the chance to speak with
Kevin McArthur, president, CEO and director of Tahoe Resources (TSX:THO5,NYSE:TAHO), about his company’s
flagship Escobal project, located in Southeastern Guatemala.
In the interview below, McArthur discusses when the company plans to reach
production, the benefits of operating in Guatemala and where he thinks silver
prices are headed. He also discusses Tahoe’s new corporate social responsibility
(CSR) initiative.
SIN: Can you start by giving our readers a brief overview of the Escobal
project? Why should investors be excited about it?
Kevin McArthur (KM):The company is building the Escobal
project to world standards; our goal is to build a world-class mine that we will
operate responsibly. It will produce 20 million ounces of silver per year. The
attributes of this deposit are such that we believe we will be leading the
industry in free cash flow per share, earnings per share — eventually, our goal
is to lead the industry in dividend yield also. We think we can demonstrate
organic growth and also deliver community sustainability. In doing so, we’ll be
able to deliver long-term shareholder value, which is basically what this
business is all about.
Specifically, the deposit is set apart from silver deposits around the world
for four main reasons. Number one, it’s very high grade. It’s got silver, lead7, zinc8 and gold9, but the silver itself amounts to over 350 million ounces
in the measured and indicated category at over 400 grams per ton. It’s also got
very wide veins, so we can put very large equipment into the underground
operations and drive the unit cost down. Because of grade and width, we believe
that our cash cost will be the lowest, or at least in the lower decile or
quartile of cash costs for silver mines. Second, it’s got geologic
prospectivity, which I touched on earlier — it continues to grow, so we believe
we’ll continue to add value over time. Third, it’s in an area where there’s
excellent infrastructure. That is very important in this business. We’re not
4,000 meters up in the Andes and we’re not way up in Northern Canada in Nunavut
— we’re in Guatemala. There’s paved road access, we’re an hour and a half from
the capital city of Guatemala, there’s water, there’s power and there’s a nearby
community, so we don’t have to establish a camp to live in. As I mentioned, the
elevation is moderate. We’ve got a management team there on the ground. Most
importantly, the mine is almost complete. We’re just starting our commissioning
activities now and we expect to be in production — at least early production —
in the fourth quarter of this year, with revenues exceeding costs by next year.
We’ll have that, we hope, on a sustainable basis. This will be a fabulous
mine.
SIN: It sounds like you’re moving quickly toward commercial production.
What are the things that need to happen before you get there?
KM:A lot of those things have been done. We’ve derisked the
project to a great extent and we understand the deposit. The biggest hurdles we
had were getting our permits on a timely basis, but we’ve received all of our
permits and established all of our derisking milestones according to the
schedule that we posted in 2010. So we’ve been hitting our timelines nicely.
The construction of the mill and underground development of course is usually
a horse race. We had a real advantage in that we were permitted for underground
development back in February 2011, so we were able to drive 5×6-meter declines
into the mining areas at a very early stage. Infrastructure and mill
construction has gone on since 2011. We’re currently ready with the mine, and
we’re very close to mill completion — as I said, we have now started the mill
commissioning activities.
Our next challenge will be those commissioning activities, getting the mill
up and running in time to hit our goal of full-scale production early next year.
We’ve done the derisking along the way and basically completed all of the
technical work, so we feel pretty good about it.
10
Fine ore bins.
SIN: The Guatemalan government recently announced a two-year moratorium on
granting new mining and exploration licenses. My understanding is that Escobal
will be unaffected, but your press
release11 on the topic says you’ll be
pulling back on some “regional work.” Can you talk about that situation a
bit?
KM: First of all, it’s only a proposal for a two-year moratorium. The
president proposed that Congress approve it. The reason is so that the Energy
and Mines Ministry can devote its time to working with Congress on a revision to
the mining law. This is a revision that’s been contemplated for some time.
They’re considering approving the royalty that we’re already committed to paying
through our agreement with the president — our royalty on the minerals we
produce is 4 percent plus an additional one percent to outlying communities. The
revision is also aimed at encouraging community participation in the approval of
mining projects and for assurances on the closure of mines. So there are a
variety of things that are being looked at under the new mining law.
The two-year moratorium hasn’t been approved yet, but we think that it will
be. Essentially, the Energy and Mines Ministry is not processing new
applications at this point. But as you stated, we are not affected by it because
we have licenses in and around our property where we can do exploration that we
would anticipate will grow the resource over time and will add to mine life. But
we have a 2,000-square-kilometer area where we have regional concessions, some
of which haven’t been approved yet, that we’re not going to able to do work on
until we have approval. So we’ll have to halt our plan to commence regional work
until the situation gets resolved.
SIN: Leaving aside the moratorium, what would you say are the
advantages/disadvantages of working in Guatemala?
KM:There are some great advantages. First of all, you’ve got
to go where the precious metals are, and Guatemala has very good geology and a
very good business environment for mines. I think Guatemala is a little bit
misunderstood in terms of the business environment, but it’s a very positive
place to do business. As I said, we received our permits and have received
positive support from the government in permitting the mine and also great
support from the business community in establishing this brand new company in a
very short period of time. So there are very solid advantages to Guatemala on
the business end.
It’s also a fully-functioing democracy. There were 30 years of civil war that
ended in the ‘90s, and since then there’s been a good democratic government in
place with peaceful transfer of power to a new president and congress every four
years. The democracy in Guatemala works very well. As I said, I believe because
of the noise that comes out of Guatemala it’s misunderstood, but we have found
it to be a very good place to operate.
12
Crusher.
SIN: Ira [vice president investor relations at Tahoe] mentioned that your
focus is on long-term share price appreciation, and it looks like things are
going well so far. With many companies struggling, how do you account for your
success? Is there a particular strategy you’re living by in these
markets?
KM:We look to be a high-grade silver miner with underground
mines and intend to continue growing the company with that kind of profile. A
lot of us on the team worked for Glamis Gold — I was the CEO — where we
delivered shareholder value by looking for assets that were unusual in terms of
all of the attributes I’ve described Escobal as having. We were always looking
for a 15-percent hurdle rate on any business propositions we made, including
acquisitions and mine expansions, and we didn’t use our stock to buy assets
unless we got an adequate rate of return. During Glamis’ years from 1999 to
2006, we built five mines, and our share price moved dramatically during that
time period because we made smart decisions and always demanded a rate of return
that was higher than what other companies would demand.
We have internal models for hurdle rates and the way we operate, making sure
that we always balance all stakeholder issues. And when I say stakeholder, I
mean shareholders, employees and communities. We feel that if we find the right
balance between what shareholders need, what our employees wish and what
communities require, we will be a successful operator. Finding that right
balance, we feel, is key to a successful mining company.
SIN: Recently there has been some speculation that silver prices have
hit bottom13 and are set
to head upward. What is your opinion?
KM: Well, I’m a little bit biased here, but I came out of retirement
to run this company and I felt that silver was a good metal to be associated
with. There’s always supply-demand issues regarding precious metals, and the one
advantage that silver has over gold is that there’s a fair amount of industrial
demand that doesn’t go away. Also, the silver that goes into making products
does not get recycled because it just doesn’t pay to pull the silver components
out of a cell phone, for instance. Quite the opposite is true for gold. Almost
all gold that has been mined historically still sits on the surface today in
various forms. So I think the supply-demand dynamic for silver is very good, and
because of that I think we’ll see silver prices doing well.
The thing about silver prices dropping is that it’s a curse and a blessing.
The blessing comes in a funny way in that the all-in cost of sustaining mine
production is higher than today’s silver price when you look at averages in this
industry. Therefore, the supply-demand curve will start to be impacted over a
period of time because marginal mines and mines that are not making money will
have to close if the silver price stays where it is today or goes lower. So
there’s a natural buffering capacity in the industry that will happen.
The reason I would speculate that silver prices will go up is for currency
reasons. Gold and silver are competitors in the currency business, and compared
to western currencies, gold and silver should hold up quite well and do very
well considering that western currencies are being printed at a runaway pace. I
don’t necessarily look at silver prices going up. The way I look at the world is
that the paper money that is going to be used to purchase this silver and gold
is going to be falling dramatically in value; therefore, you have to use more
dollars to buy an ounce of silver, so the silver price goes up on a relative
basis . If you follow that to its logical conclusion, you can see a much higher
silver price in the future.
14
Ball mill.
SIN: Is there anything else you’d like to add?
KM: We have just recently started a big initiative in the company, and
it relates to getting our final permit in April of this year. The initiative is
on CSR. Not only do we want to become the new leader in the silver space, but we
want to operate responsibly with that balance that I spoke about between all.
stakeholders We’ve started a new division in the company so we have equal weight
between operations, finance, exploration and now CSR. We’ve hired BSR to help
guide our plans both corporately and in country. We just recently put out a
press release that describes some of the things that we’re doing in our CSR
programs. I want to highlight that as something we strongly believe in. We will
have more news on the initiative going forward. SIN: Thank you very much for speaking with me today.
Last week, Silver Investing News took a look at commentary
from John Whitefoot, author and editor at Daily Gains Letter, and
Sprott’s Thoughts’ David Franklin and David Baker, identifying two reasons
that silver prices could be set to rise. Now, as silver prices slowly
creep up the charts, market participants are wondering whether the white
metal is rebounding after hitting bottom or simply enjoying a
short-term boost.
Here’s a look at a number of factors, identified by Market Oracle analyst Jason Hamlin and Tony Davis of Atlanta Gold & Coin Buyers, that suggest silver prices have truly bottomed out:
Mining stocks are doing better than metals: Hamlin
notes in his article that in the last week or so, “quality mining
stocks” have started to perform better than the metals they represent.
Put more simply, many silver miners have risen upwards of 8 percent
while silver is up just 4.5 percent. Up until now, the white metal has
been faring better than such stocks.
Support may exist at $18.50: Another point covered
by Hamlin is that on “four separate occasions from 2008 to 2010,” silver
has encountered strong resistance at the $18 to $19 level. That is
significant, he notes, because “[t]he stronger the initial resistance,
the stronger the future support.” He believes that, as it has done in
the past, the white metal will bounce off this level.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is collecting silver: For
his part, Davis points to the fact that JPMorgan “is taking physical
delivery of silver bullion in upwards of 90%” of contracts being
settled, a drastic increase from the usual 3 percent. While the bank
could just be anticipating increased demand for physical delivery
requests, it may also be gearing up for a rise in silver prices, Davis
states.
Cost of production
While Hamlin and Davis mainly identify different things they believe
point to a bottom in the silver market, the one thing they agree on is
that for many miners, silver is now at or below its cost of production.
As Hamlin points out, that situation is unsustainable — after all, he
asks, “[h]ow many items can you buy in the marketplace at or below the
cost to produce it?” The answer, of course, is not very many, a point
that David Morgan made to SIN
not long ago. As a result, both writers believe it won’t be long before
companies start closing unprofitable mines, thereby decreasing supply
and driving prices up.
A nod to the naysayers
Of course, not everyone believes that the bottom for silver prices is here. In a SilverSeek article
published yesterday, Przemyslaw Radomski states that while silver moved
higher last week, its “downtrend will remain in place … unless [it] can
increase and hold a breakout above the $20.70 price level,” a
“short-term resistance level” he says is based on intra-day highs.
As yet, the white metal has not done so, and as a result, Radomski
believes that last week’s upward movement was merely a “contra-trend
bounce” and the final bottom for silver is still to come.
With opinions ranged across the board it is difficult to say where
the silver price will go next. Let us know what you think will happen in
the survey below.
En del tror att företaget är en bluff. Men jag skulle säga att hela upplägget som syns på denna organisationsbild är alldeles för rörig för ett bluffbolag. Nog för att ett bluffbolag skulle kunna uppvisa en rörig struktur, men min poäng med denna organisationsbild är att det är ett trovärdigt upplägg där företaget Sino Agro Food som finansiering förutom att emittera aktier och nu senast försöket med en Bond, använt joint ventures, sammarbeten för att finansiera de olika verksamheterna.
Nu har jag även som JF-medlem tagit del av material från Jordanfonden som varit på besök där i Kina och gått igenom företagets verksamhet. Det stärker min övertygelse om att detta inte är ett bluff-bolag, utan ett riktigt företag som drivs av en äkta driven Entreprenör, CEO Solomon Lee.
Det hade sannerligen inte varit fel om jag hade varit med på besök på plats. Jag ser fram emot fler kommande visningar av verksamheten för aktieägare och investerare. Det är ett tag sen Jordanfonden var där och mycket har hänt sedan dess. Det kanske skulle passa med en kommande visning för investerare och aktieägare igen nu till hösten i samarbete med en eventuell notering av SIAF på First North?
It’s no secret that silver has fared poorly this year. But
exactly how bad is bad? Since June drew to a close, news agencies have
been quick to report the extent of the damage: the white metal has
fallen 35 percent in the first six months of 2013 and is set to record
its worst performance in three decades.
Disheartening though that number may be, some market participants
believe that a turnaround is coming. Here’s a look at why John
Whitefoot, author and editor at Daily Gains Letter, and Sprott’s
Thoughts’ David Franklin and David Baker believe that silver is gearing
up for gains. Economic uncertainty could buoy prices
In a recent commentary,
Whitefoot notes that although this year was supposed to be “the year
that silver regained its luster,” climbing either as a hedge against
inflation and a devalued dollar or on the back of industrial demand,
“strangely” that has not happened.
However, Whitefoot believes that all is by no means lost, stating
that for contrarian investors — those who attempt to profit by investing
in ways that go against conventional wisdom — “silver has never lost
its shine — its role as a safe haven hasn’t really changed.” Elaborating
on that idea, he explains that the US economy is still not particularly
strong. For instance, the country’s unemployment rate sits at about 7.5
percent, first-quarter GDP growth was “well below” expectations and
wages are not improving. Outside the US, Portugal is facing problems and
the Chinese economy is not doing overly well.
These factors, according to Whitefoot, indicate that “all of the
ingredients for a rally are still set” — and based on the fact that the
US Mint has sold 43.9 percent more Silver Eagles in the first half of 2013 compared to the same period last year, he believes average American investors can see that.
He concludes his piece with the statement that “as long as the global
economy remains uncertain and central banks continue to print more and
more money, silver will continue to be in demand as a store of value.”
Commercial traders going long on silver
Taking a different approach, in a Sprott’s Thoughts note published
yesterday, Franklin and Baker point out that hope for silver prices can
be drawn from the fact that collectively, commercial traders — in other
words, large banks — have reduced their short positions from 259
million ounces in February 2013 to just 20 million ounces as of the
Commitment of Traders (COT) report released June 25. That reduction
“represents the cumulative purchase of approximately 240 million ounces
of ‘long’ silver contracts.”
That is significant, say the writers, because commercial traders have
“traditionally held significantly large ‘short’ positions,” meaning
that they are “either hedging an existing silver position or betting
that silver will depreciate.” A shift away from short positions toward
long positions could mean that such traders are now preparing for a
“bullish silver reversal.” Franklin and Baker believe that this idea is
further supported by the fact that commercial traders have also reduced
their net short gold positions.
Like Whitefoot, Franklin and Baker end their writeup by suggesting
that these changes in positioning may indicate that silver prices are
set to hit bottom and turn around.
The upshot
Though silver has been the underdog so far this year, there are at
least two reasons that may be about to change. Those interested in the
white metal should consider keeping an eye on future COT reports as well
as economic conditions.
The silver market is still very much influenced by speculation as
to when the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will pull the plug
on the current round of quantitative easing (QE), as is evidenced by
this week’s price action.
Early in the week, silver tracked gold
higher on short covering and safe-haven demand sparked by political
upheaval in Egypt, closing back up four pennies over $19 an ounce
Monday. That moderate upswing continued Tuesday as inflation news out of
China lent further support to gold and silver despite a stronger US
dollar, pushing silver up to $19.12 an ounce.
This week’s rally really picked up momentum mid-week after the release of minutes from Wednesday’s US FOMC meeting, Bloomberg reported.
Precious metals bulls gained strength from FOMC members stating that
they want to wait for more positive economic signals before axing bond
buying. A slight loss in the US dollar, in addition to higher oil prices, was also bullish for silver, which closed Wednesday at $19.37 an ounce.
Silver’s much-awaited rally continued for a fourth straight session
Thursday, the metal’s longest rally since March 8, according to
Bloomberg. The precious metals markets were bolstered by Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke’s call for a “[h]ighly accommodative monetary
policy for the foreseeable future” from the US central bank in order to
spur economic growth. Silver hit a six-week high for a Thursday close of
$19.965 an ounce.
Company news
Coeur Mining (TSX:CDM,NYSE:CDE) released
results from the preliminary economic assessment completed on its La
Preciosa silver-gold project in Durango, Mexico. The mine is expected to
produce an estimated 134.5 million ounces of silver over a mine life of
17 years, making La Preciosa potentially one of the top 10 primary
silver mines in the world. The mine is expected to generate a 17-percent
after-tax internal rate of return based on $25 per silver ounce and
$1,500 per gold ounce.
First Majestic Silver (TSX:FR,NYSE:AG) announced
that total Q2 production at its five Mexican silver mines increased 55
percent over the same period last year for a record 34,268,117
equivalent ounces of silver. The producer also has said it will cut 10
percent of its workforce this year, reported Reuters, due to slumping silver prices. The company has already canceled drilling contacts and suspended silver sales.
Great Panther Silver (TSX:GPR,NYSEMKT:GPL) reported
Q2 production from its Guanajuato and Topia mines in Mexico. Metal
production rose 22 percent over the same period last year, to 680,212
silver equivalent ounces. The company attributes the increase to
improved grades and operational efficiency. Great Panther’s management
is confident the company remains on track to meet its fiscal 2013
production guidance of 2.4 to 2.5 million silver equivalent ounces.
Q2 production figures for Fortuna Silver Mines‘ (TSX:FVI,NYSE:FSM) San
Jose mine in Mexico and the Caylloma mine in Peru show a total of
1,074,007 ounces of silver and 5,183 ounces of gold. So far this year,
production at the two mines has totaled 2,066,225 ounces of silver and
9,675 ounces of gold. The silver producer is on target to meet its 2013
production guidance of 5.9 million ounces of silver equivalent.
Endeavour Silver (TSX:EDR,NYSE:EXK) announced
record-breaking second-quarter silver and gold production. Compared to
the same quarter last year, second-quarter silver production for 2013
rose 48 percent, to 1,535,873 ounces, while gold was up 159 percent, to
19,914 ounces. Revenues for the quarter were also up 57 percent, to
US$63.5 million. The company attributes its stellar production numbers
to successful operations at the Bolanitos mine, whose output peaked at
3,000 metric tons per day.
Junior company news
Entourage Metals (TSXV:EMT) commenced
exploration work at its La Liga silver project in the Yukon Territory,
Canada. The program is focused on high-grade silver plus lead-zinc
mineralization at the Red Devil and Galactose zones and will involve
detailed geologic mapping, prospecting and mechanical trenching.
Apogee Silver (TSXV:APE) reported
that a development and sampling program at its Pulacayo project in
Bolivia has exposed a vein with an average grade of 868 g/t silver over a
97-meter strike length and average width of 0.61 meters. The company is
seeking financial partners in the construction of a Phase I mine and
mill complex at Pulacayo; it is designed to produce 2.5 million silver
equivalent ounces per year.
Krönika
Inte sedan finanskrisen 2008 har flykten från
tillväxtmarknaderna varit så stor som nu. Nu kan det löna sig att gå mot
strömmen och att köpa impopulära och undervärderade företag, skriver
Skagen Kon-Tikis förvaltare Kristoffer Stensrud i en gästkrönika
Vad som är populärt och impopulärt förändras snabbt
bland investerarna i finansvärlden. Från att ha varit en i det närmaste
avkastningssäker hamn under stora stora delar av 2000-talet har
tillväxtmarknader förvandlats till paria. Särskilt tuff var behandlingen
under juni. Inte sedan finanskrisen hösten 2008 har flykten från
tillväxtmarknaderna varit så stor.
Svenska investerare med pengar placerade i den del av världen som
står för nästan all ekonomisk tillväxt kan konstatera att årets första
sex månader har åsamkat dem en förlust på 6,6 procent (SKAGEN Kon-Tiki
har i jämförelse backat 1,2 procent). De som istället satsat på
aktiemarknader i de länder som står för en mycket mindre del av den
ekonomiska tillväxten i världen, i utvecklade länder, har kunnat glädja
sig över en förträfflig avkastning på 10,2 procent.
Stor rabatt i tillväxtmarknader
Prissättningen av bolag i tillväxtmarknader ligger nu långt under det
historiska genomsnittet baserat på både löpande intjäning och bokfört
eget kapital. Jämfört med utvecklade marknader har inte rabatten, eller
riskpremien om man så vill, varit större på åtta år.
Investerarnas fokus har på nytt riktats mot en möjlig kreditkris och
svagare ekonomisk tillväxt i Kina, nedslående ekonomiska nyckeltal,
indikatorer och prognoser från i stort sett alla tillväxtländer. På
toppen av detta kommer oro och ett ökande missnöje med den politiska
styrningen hos den snabbt växande medelklassen i flera tillväxtländer.
Detta har vi själva kunnat beskåda på TV i form av utagerande vanliga
människor, som du och jag, i länder som Turkiet, Brasilien och inte
minst i Egypten, där demokratiseringen efter valet inte ledde till
nödvändiga politiska reformer.
Förra året vid den här tiden var det den ihärdiga eurokrisen och en
svag amerikansk ekonomi som präglade nyhetsbilden. Mycket har förändrats
sedan dess. Det mesta till det bättre. Bostads- och arbetsmarknaden i
USA, själva livsnerven i den amerikanska ekonomin, har återhämtat sig
snabbare än vad de största optimisterna hade kunnat tänka sig.
Gröna skott i Europa I Europa har de första
gröna skotten kommit. Konstigt nog först i Sydeuropa där optimismen
börjar öka. I alla fall om man ska tro de senaste PMI-undersökningarna
som visar att inköpscheferna i företagen nu ser ljusare på tillvaron
igen.
Kostnadsnedskärningar, inte minst i form av relativt lägre löner de
senaste åren, har lett till en på vissa håll kraftig
produktivitetsökning.
Svag inhemsk efterfrågan i både USA och Europa har fått företagen att
satsa utomlands med ökande marknadsandelar inom vissa sektorer som
resultat. Ökad tillväxt och bättre tider även på hemmaplan har lett till
höjda förväntningar på att företagen ska leverera bättre resultat. I
tillväxtmarknaderna är situationen annorlunda. Många år med hög tillväxt
har lett till att kostnaderna har skjutit i höjden medan
produktiviteten har gått motsatt väg. Utförsbacken har även synts i
analytikernas vinstprognoser för bolagen.
Råvaruboomen död och begraven Men dagens
vinstprognoser bygger för mycket på en råvaruboom många förväntade sig
2010 men som nu är död och begraven. Alltför stora investeringar i ny
kapacitet, minskad efterfrågan och giriga regeringar, som vill säkra att
”jordräntan” går till samhället istället för globala kapitalister är
ansvariga för likvideringen.
Mixen av en svag makroekonomi, social oro och misskötsel av många
bolag i tillväxtmarknader är giftig. Den medför att andra
investeringsområden ser väsentligt mer attraktiva ut.
De senast årens utveckling i världsekonomin gör att tillämpningen av
vår investeringsfilosofi, som har gett bra resultat det senaste
decenniet, måste ändras lite. Mindre vikt måste läggas på generell
ekonomisk tillväxt och mer på de enskilda företagens utveckling, var de
än befinner sig i världen.
Privata företag som trots kriser eller pressade situationer kan skapa
värden och bygga varumärken från en lokal position är intressanta.
Företag som är beroende av sociala koncessioner är ointressanta. Bolag
som ger befolkningen en högre levnadsstandard, bättre kontroll över sina
liv och god information håller vi dock våra ögon och öron öppna för.
Kriser skapar köplägen
Avslutningsvis, för de
som har intrycket av att vi har blivit domedagsprofeter och talar emot
oss själva: den senaste tidens generella utförsäljning av aktier i
tillväxtmarknader, där de flesta bolagen konkurrerar på en global arena,
skapar köplägen. Att gå mot strömmen och att köpa impopulära och
undervärderade företag kan på kort sikt se ut som dåliga investeringar.
På lång sikt har vi emellertid bra erfarenheter, från både Asien- och
Ryssland-krisen under 1998, av att liknande situationer kan skapa mycket
bra långsiktiga värden för aktieägarna.
Det är enligt uppgift från JF en effektiv årsränta på 17,5% som på bonden som ska ge Sino Agro Food ett tillskott på 16,8 MUSD. Det är väldigt hög ränta, men Bonden kommer inte noteras för handel.
På träffen med Sino Agro Food i maj hos Penser sade Solomon att sommaren är en dålig tid att notera aktien. Vi får se om det blir nu till hösten. Det är fullt sannolikt
Listan på de 14 aktier som Jordanfonden tror kommer att
ha bäst procentuell utveckling fram till jul 2013. Bolag inom olja och
guld är i fokus.
Informationstjänsten Jordanfonden med Nisse Sandberg har
den 7 juli sammanställt en lista på 14 bra aktier som de tror kommer
att ha bäst procentuell utveckling fram till jul 2013. Jordanfonden
poängterar dock att man måste ha en tro på råvarorna som företagen
jobbar med för att köpa aktierna.
Bolagen är uppdelade i tre grupper. Bolag aktiva inom olja respektive
guld, samt bolag som Jordanfonden är involverade i. Inom parantes är
aktiens tickerkod och siffrorna är priset som aktien hade när marknaden
stängde i fredags.
The
growing taste of Chinese consumers for beef may herald a tie-up with a
foreign export group, Rabobank said, even as Shuanghui International is
undertaking the acquisition of US pork group Smithfield Foods.
China's
beef imports have grown "astonishingly" this year, albeit from
relatively low levels, jumping 10-fold in the January-to-April period
compared with the same period of 2012, Rabobank said.
The
strength of imports reflects the "imbalance between expanding
consumption and stagnant production" which has sent retail beef prices
soaring to $9.40 per kilogramme as of May, up 33% year on year.
Prices of fattened cattle are rising even faster, which illustrates the serious supply shortage".
Foreign deals?
The
signing by Beijing of a memorandum of understanding over legal import of
Indian buffalo meat, which has up to now been smuggled into the booming
Chinese market, looks like heralding further deals.
"This
signals that China will further open the door to imports from the global
beef market," Rabobank said, adding that it could herald corporate
activity too.
"This scenario may trigger interest from Chinese beef players in exporting companies and countries.
"Amidst
these conditions, we cannot rule out the possibility that Chinese beef
companies may seek partnerships with counterparts in important
beef-producing countries.
Trade ties
Rabobank highlighted in particular Australia, the top exporter to China, as a likely target for Chinese interest.
Australia
accounted for 47% of China's beef imports, by volume, in the
January-to-April period, and its exporters "continue to move quickly to
position themselves in the Chinese market", the bank said
Howver, Uruguay is "catching up rapidly" thanks to competitive prices, raising its market share to 25%.
Uruguay's exports to China in the year to May soared 480% to 33,000 tonnes.
New Zealand is another major exporter of beef to China, as it is of dairy products too.
Horsemeat scandal hangover
The
comments came in a report in which Rabobank also flagged a boost to the
European Union industry from the tightened food security measures which
have followed the furore of horsemeat being passed off as beef.
"The
impact of the horsemeat scandal has resulted in another price increase
for cattle in the EU," hitting a record E4.44 per kilogramme in May, up
50% from a low in October 2010.
"The increase in prices has been supported by higher demand for beef from players having to replace horsemeat with real beef."
The quest for beef may also be behind a surge in EU imports from Brazil, up 42% to 25,500 tonnes in the year to May.
"Lucky Loser" på Sino Agro Foods sida på InvestorsHub har lagt upp en länk till PDF-dokument som beskriver erbjudande av Bond-finansiering för SIAF som nu erbjuds placerare
Företaget håller på arbetar för fullt med att ordna finansiering för resten av innevarande år.
Jag har tittat en del på rapporten för Q1 2013 och man hade enligt den 115,252,569 aktier helt utspädd per den 31 mars 2013. Mandatet för det betydande aktieslaget "common shares" är tydligen 130 000 000 aktier vad jag läst för närvarande. EPS för Q1 var 1.14 USD per aktie. Och Q1 är inte det starkaste kvartalet, räknat på Q1 x 4 är EPS uppe i 0,56 USD att jämför med dagens kurs på 0,36 USD per aktie. Jag har framöver tänkt gå igenom Q1 resultatet, balansräkning och kassaflödesanalys för de uppgifter som finns från maj avseende Q1 2013, detta i väntan på mer info om BOND-finansiering och Q2 siffror som borde komma runt mitten av augusti.
"Naturally Splendid Enterprises Ltd. has created a line of hemp-seed
derived Omega-rich products that can be seen on shelves in mainstream
western Canadian supermarkets at this point such as Save On Foods, Urban
Fare, London Drugs, Marketplace IGA and Sobeys. Sales in these stores are growing, and the number of stores expected
to start carrying NS Hemp products is expected to rise throughout 2013.
They recently signed on a national distributor to expand distribution
across Canada. But the really interesting differentiator for Naturally Splendid is
its new product line upcoming, will allow hemp oil in aqueous and powder
forms to be incorporated as a food additive to just about anything.
Imagine “omega-rich” pizza, or omega-enriched bread and milk. Suddenly
foods that traditionally have no omega essential fatty acid content can
be a superb dietary source of omega 3 and 6 in exactly the right
proportion for maximum dietary uptake. Its the twist to Naturally
Splendid that makes the company’s ability to grow its bottom-line
business exceptional."
"Statoil har underpresterat sina peers med 15 procent hittills i år.
Carnegie tror att denna situation kan hänföras till skattehöjningen i Norge och guidning för lägre produktion under 2013.
Dessutom kommer prisnedgången i oljan att påverka Statoil mer än
de flesta av sina peers med tanke på dess ganska rena upstream
exponering och stora investeringar i området.
Investmentbanken ser den svaga kursutvecklingen som ett bra köpläge.
Riktkursen är 154 norska kronor och Statoil är ett mycket attraktivt
upstream exponerade bolag med en tilltalande värdering.
Mot slutet av innevarande år är bolagets produktion inställd på att
börja växa igen.
Under nästa år kommer flera stora områden dessutom tas i bruk."
Per H Börjesson som skrivit ett par böcker om privatekonomi drog stor publik i Almedalen. Många ville ha konkret vägledning hur man blir miljonär genom klokt sparande.
Här är hans tre råd:
Spara 10 procent direkt när du får lön. Vänta inte på bättre tider.
Köp en bostad i ett bra läge och amortera på dina lån.
Köp aktier eller aktiefonder, gärna indexfonder, och behåll dem.
– Alla kan bli miljonärer på sikt bara man följer dessa regler, säger Per H Börjesson.
Like most commodities, silver has had a tough time these past few months, having fallen
from close to $30 in mid-April to its current price of $19.32. However,
good news for the white metal has recently arisen in the form of Indian
silver import figures.
In a note
published last Friday, Eric Sprott and David Franklin state that after
importing just 1,900 metric tons (MT) of silver in 2012, India has
brought in 2,400 MT of the precious metal in just the first five months
of this year. That is significant given the fact that India’s record for
silver imports, recorded in 2008, is 5,048 MT, as per SilverSeek.com.
Why the surge in imports?
In terms of precious metals, India’s claim to fame has long been its status as the world’s biggest gold
consumer. It’s gained that title largely because people in the country
have limited access to banks, and, according to Sprott and Franklin,
“owning precious metals is synonymous with savings and security.”
However, at present, taxes and import restrictions are making it
difficult for buyers to get their hands on the yellow metal. Seeking
Alpha contributor Dante Caruso elaborates on those measures in a recent article,
commenting that in May, the Indian government raised the gold import
duty to 8 percent from 6 percent as part of its “drastic measures to
redirect [gold] investment back into the economy.” Further, lending
against gold, including gold jewelry and gold ETFs, has been restricted,
while Reliance Capital and the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade
Federation are attempting to curb sales of gold and gold-related
products.
As a result “it would appear that the Indian gold trade has moved
offshore” to get away from those factors, while ”the majority of Indian
investors” — excluding larger investors — are gravitating toward silver,
Sprott and Franklin state.
The implications
Unsurprisingly, these circumstances have investors wondering whether
this year will see India break its 2008 record for silver imports.
More importantly, many are considering how the market will be
affected if India breaks, or even approaches, that record. Shedding some
light on that topic, Caruso states in his article that due to both
silver’s cheapness relative to gold and the fact that Indians spend so
much more money on gold than on silver — respectively $7.2 billion and
$665 million in May — “[v]ery little redirection of gold investment into
silver is required to have a major impact.”
Put more bluntly, that means that if even a small number of gold
investors decide to buy silver instead, the silver market could easily
be overwhelmed, with prices rising “very quickly” as supply diminishes.
With that in mind, it looks as though, like Sprott and Franklin state, silver will be the true winner in India’s “war on gold.”
Silver mining in Mexico is on the rise, and many hopefuls are
flocking to the country to try their luck. Here’s a look at five such
companies.
Canada’s Aurcana (TSXV:AUN) owns 99.9 percent of the La Negra silver-copper-lead-zinc
mine, which is located in Queretaro State, Mexico. As of 2009, La Negra
was milling 1,000 metric tons (MT) per day, a number that jumped to 2,500 MT per day
in 2012. This year, Aurcana expects to reach 3,000 MT per day. While
exploration is ongoing at La Negra, a report from August 2012 identified
115 million ounces of measured and indicated silver underground. This
news changed the mine’s life to at least 30 years.
Avino Silver & Gold Mines (TSXV:ASM), also based in Canada, has 99.28-percent ownership of the Avino mine in
the heart of the Sierra Madre Gold-Silver Belt. The mine was discovered
in the 1500s and has been in operation, on and off, ever since. The
mine has been owned by Avino since 1974, though production shut down in
2001 as a result of low silver prices and the closure of a key smelter.
Avino has since reopened the mine. The San Gonzalo zone achieved
full-time production in October 2012, while the company is exploring new
zones in the area that were discovered in 2011.
Formerly a subsidiary of NSGold (TSXV:NSX), NSX Silver (TSXV:NSY) is currently actively mining
the Dios Padre mine, located in the Eastern Sierra Madre mountain range
about midway between Hermosillo and Chihuahua in East-Central Sonora.
NSX believes that the Dios Padre property’s exploration potential is
excellent, particularly in the breccia body. The property has been mined
since the 17th century and hosts high-grade silver mineralization.
Pilot tests have already demonstrated that the property responds well to
conventional milling and flotation, yielding a concentrate with
87-percent recovery of silver.
Gold and silver producer Silvermex Resources (TSX:SLX)‘s primary asset
is La Guitarra, a property located in the Temascaltepec mining district
of Central Mexico. The property, along with the company, was absorbed
by First Majestic Silver (TSX:FR,NYSE:AG)
in July 2012. The mine covers 98,135 acres and has been mined since the
15th century. Recently, the company completed an expansion program,
increasing its silver production capacity by 40 percent, to 500 MT per
day. Further planning is currently underway to increase production to as
much as 1,000 MT per day. The mine consists of two underground
operation centers and a flotation mill.
Vancouver-basedKootenay Silver (TSXV:KTN) is currently exploring
its Promontorio mine in Sonora, Mexico; the company recently discovered
that the mine contains 92 million silver equivalent (AuEq) ounces. The
mine is made up of approximately 197,684 acres and contains an estimated
44.5 million MT grading an average of 64.32 g/t AuEq. Exploration of
the area indicates that as many as 92 million ounces of AuEq could be
available, with an additional 24 million ounces categorized as
“inferred.” The company is approaching a milestone of 1 million ounces
of AuEq mined.
The history of silver mining in Mexico stretches back almost 500
years, when the great silver-gold vein system of the Veta Madre at
Guanajuato was discovered
in 1550. That area is now known as the Silver Belt, and it stretches
from Guanajuato and Zacatecas in the Mesa Central, Chihuahua in the Mesa
del Norte and San Luis Potosi to the East. Today, this is the home to
silver mining companies from around the world.
"Geologically, there is no better place on earth for silver," said geologist Peter Megaw to The Northern Miner.
Megaw, president of International Development and Exploration and
confounder of MAG Silver (MAG-T, MVG-X), has worked in Mexico for nearly
40 years. Last year Mexico produced over 162 million ounces of silver, making it the global leader in silver production.
Though Mexico has long since been a major player on the silver mining
scene, the country was not receptive to foreign investors for a large
part of the twentieth century. From 1961 to 1991, the Mexican mining law
stipulated that mineral assets must be at least 50 percent owned by
Mexican companies. In the 1990s, when the law changed to allow 100
percent foreign investment, international companies quickly flocked to
reinvest in the country's silver mines, resulting in many new silver
sources being uncovered.
Companies to watch in 2013
Fresnillo PLC (FRES:LN) is a United Kingdom-based company which
made its debut on the London Stock Exchange in 2008. The group
maintains the largest land area of concessions for precious metals
exploration and mining in Mexico. In 2012, Fresnillo produced 36.9
million ounces of silver, and the first quarter of 2013 has produced
10.1 million ounces already, putting it up 2.6 percent over the first
quarter of 2012.
First Majestic Silver Corporation (TSX:FR, NYSE:AG) currently owns and operates
mines in Mexico, with its headquarters in British Columbia, Canada. The
corporation anticipates the production of over 11 million ounces of
silver in 2013 through their five mines, La Parrilla Silver Mine, the
San Martin Silver Mine, the La Encantada Silver Mine, the Del Toro
Silver Mine and the La Guitarra Silver Mine.
Endeavour Silver Corporation (NYSE: EXK, TSX: EDR) has seen eight consecutive years
of growth since its startup in 2004. The company is mid-tier, focusing
on expansion programs at its three operating mines in Mexico, the
Guanaceví Mines operation in Durango State and the Bolañitos (formerly
called Guanajuato Mines) and El Cubo mines operations in Guanajuato
State. A total silver production of more than 5 million ounces is
expected in 2013 after a 2012 yield of 4.5 million ounces.
What to keep in mind when investing in silver
Silver, in general, is considered a safe investment.
Its worth is not generally going to be greatly affected by political
turmoil or economic crisis. However, it should be noted that silver
serves as a currency as well as an industrial metal. This gives it
behavior similar to that of a currency and may act as an inflation hedge
during falling dollar prices.
As silver mining becomes more widespread and successful in
Mexico, many companies are in the process of exploring promising
properties.
Southern Silver Exploration Corp.(TSXV:SSV)
Based in Vancouver, Canada, this junior exploration company is currently
working on multiple projects throughout North America, including two in
Mexico. Southern Silver’s flagship exploration property is the Cerro
Las Minitas silver-lead-zinc
property located in Durango State, Mexico. It covers over 57.9 square
miles, much of which is in Northern Mexico’s Faja de Plata, or Belt of
Silver. According to the company’s website, this area has historic
production and resources of over 3 billion ounces of silver.
Southern Silver is also in the process of exploring its Minas de Ameca project in Jalisco State. This property contains silver, gold and copper deposits within its 50.6-square-mile area.
Arian Silver Corporation (TSXV:AGQ)
The silver exploration, development and production company focuses
primarily on the silver belt in Mexico, specifically Zacatecas State.
Its mission is to explore properties with prior exploration and
production history in order to best reduce risks and capital costs.
Currently, Arian Silver’s main exploration project is its
100-percent-owned Calicanto Group, which encompasses 7 adjacent
properties in Zacatecas. It does not have a current reserve estimate,
but during previous production in 1955, a small section of the mines had
monthly production of 1,500 to 3,400 dry tons, with an average of 110
grams per ton of silver. The property has since been expanded through
exploration.
Aura Silver Resources (TSXV:AUU)
Aura Silver’s concentration is silver and gold in North America. Its
major Taviche Project is located in Oaxaca, Mexico, within the San Jose
Mining District.
This exploration project is made up of the Taviche East and Alma
Delia concessions, according to the company’s website. Within these,
research on the Higo Blanco prospect has determined an inferred silver
resource of 865,000 metric tons at a grade of 119 grams per ton,
amounting to 3.3 million ounces of contained silver.
Kootenay Silver (TSXV:KTN)
The Vancouver-based exploration and mining company is focused heavily on
the exploration of its 100-percent-owned flagship Promontorio Silver
Project located in Sonora, Mexico. Kootenay Silver’s most recent
resource estimate found this property holds an estimated 92,035,000
ounces of silver equivalent, plus an additional 24,326,000 ounces
inferred. Promontorio is also estimated to contain sizeable gold
deposits.
Currently, the Promontorio property is such a priority that Kootenay is not in the process of exploring any other areas.
NSX Silver (TSXV:NSY)
Also headquartered in Canada, NSX Silver is a mineral exploration
company focused on the exploration and development of silver in Mexico.
Its primary asset is the Dios Padre project located in the Eastern
Sierra Madre Mountain range between Hermosillo and Chihuahua.
The Dios Padre’s past production reached 16 million ounces of silver,
according to the company website, and its current exploration potential
is considered to be excellent. NSX Silver has plans to produce a
resource estimation for the project in the near future.
Nokia aviserade igår att banken kommer köpa
ut Siemens från NSN, vilka fortfarande kan sikta mot en
börsintroducering. Eftersom att transaktionen på 1,7 miljarder Euro står
för mer än 50 procent av rabatten i Nordeas värderinguppskattning tar
banken en exceptionellt positiv stans till aktien.
Nordea antar att efter Q3, då minoritetsintressen försvinner,
kommer att ge betydligt högre estimat. Banken upprepar köp och höjer
riktkursen till 3,50 Euro (3,25).
I Nordeas rapport från den 12 juni om NSN, värderade man Siemens
”halva” av NSN till minst 4 miljarder Euro eller 1 Euro per Nokia-aktie.
Affären på 1,7 miljarder Euro verkar nästan för bra för att vara sann
men den kommer sannolikt att förklaras genom ”trötthet” i Siemens efter
mer än sex år som passerat för joint venture och givet att avyttringar
av IPO skulle ta ytterligare tre år. Därmed berättigar NSN åtminstone
två tredjedelar av Nokias nuvarande aktiekurs med potential att
fortsätta uppåt på egna meriter.
Även om förvärvet kommer pressa Nokias balansräkning, anser Nordea
att verksamheten klart är gångbar även utan kassaflödet från NSN (1,5
miljarder Euro, av vilka 800 miljoner Euro kan lösgöras) exkluderar
potential i nya mått för att lösgöra runt 500 miljoner Euro i kapital
genom att sälja fabriker, så som Helsingin Sanomat skrev igår, så väl
som positiva kassautsikter för Nokia och NSN under 2013. I samtliga
fall, känner Nordea att Nokia kommer få det enklare att adressera
skuldmarknader med förstärkt kassaflöde än genom att ha pengar på
banken.
Nordea har mestadels förlitat sig på värderingen av ett
helhetsscenario för Nokia under den tuffa övergången för divisionen
Smart Devices som har återinställt vinster. Fullt ägarskap av NSN
innebär en materialpåverkan på vinstmultiplar, som tar tillbaka dem till
attraktiva nivåer med ett P/E-tal för 2014 på 12,5, EV/EBIT på 7,2 och
EV/EBITDA på 3,7. Nordeas reviderade grundvärdering av bolaget står nu
på 4,5 Euro per aktie (ett intervall mellan 3,2 till 5,3 Euro).
Det är svårt att förstå och därmed bedöma
Kinas ekonomi. Stora kulturella skillnader i agerande och värderingar
gör att vi ofta går bet. Samtidigt finns en osäkerhet om huruvida det
går att lita på den statistik vi får tillgång till.
Det vi dock vet med säkerhet är att det är ett land med en mycket
stor befolkning men där medelklassen utgör bara en del. Å andra sidan
ökar nu medelklassen i snabb takt och därmed förhoppningarna om förhöjd
levnadsstandard. Denna utveckling skapar såväl möjligheter som risker.
Trots Kinas geografiska storlek finns bara en tidszon i Kina.
Ekonomiskt är det, däremot, stora skillnader. Östra Kina, med Peking och
Shanghai i spetsen, står inför utmaningen att gå från att vara ett
industrisamhälle till att bli en konsumtionsdriven ekonomi, medan västra
Kina fortfarande är outvecklat och fattigt.
I mitten av Kina ligger Chongqing och Chengdu, två städer med 29
respektive 14 miljoner invånare, som nu växer i rekordfart. Tillväxten
var hela 13 procent 2012. Kina har golv för hur låg tillväxten får vara.
I Chongqing är golvet 12 procent i år, vilket kan jämföras med 7,5
procent för Shanghai och riket i genomsnitt.
Samtidigt är inkomsten per person i Chongqing bara drygt hälften av
den i Shanghai, medan minimilönen är 35 procent lägre. Å andra sidan är
kvadratmeterpriset för ett hus 8 000 yuan i Chongqing, mot 28 000 yuan i
Shanghai. Förutsättningarna för hög tillväxt i städer en bit från
östkusten är därmed fortsatt goda. Det dröjer innan de slår i
tillväxttaket, och viljan är stark till att uppnå samma levnadsstandard
som städerna vid östkusten har.
Det regerande kommunistpartiets ambition är också att konsumtionen
ska bli en starkare motor i ekonomin. Ett mål är att disponibelinkomsten
ska fördubblas från 2010 till 2020. Löneökningar på närmare 10 procent
är standard på många håll, vilket i sig ger möjlighet till högre
konsumtion. E-handeln ökar i rekordfart, vilket kan vara ett skäl till
att konsumtionstalen underskattas. I fjol handlade 210 miljoner personer
återkommande på nätet, och antalet växer snabbt.
Befolkningen i Kina är respektingivande 1,3 miljarder människor.
Varje år utexamineras 6 miljoner universitetsstudenter. Ska alla
individer höja sin levnadsstandard lär det hålla uppe tillväxten ett bra
tag till. Löner som stiger så snabbt är, å andra sidan, en utmaning för
företagens vinstutveckling, eftersom priserna inte kan höjas i samma
takt.
Baksidan av den snabba utvecklingen är miljö och hälsa. Oron för den
hälsovådliga miljön är utbredd. Trycket ökar därmed på myndigheterna att
göra något. På sikt kan det bli svårt att få internationella företag
att flytta till städer där luften är alltför dålig. Det kan också bli
svårt att locka välutbildade familjer.
Andra utmaningar är den omfattande korruptionen. Partiet är starkt,
och många gynnas av systemet. Det är dock slående hur mycket
marknadsekonomin styr även partiets agerande. Stora delar av
affärsverksamheten sker genom ledningen i respektive region och stad.
Den största utmaningen för partiet blir därmed sannolikt att även på
sikt öka levnadsstandarden lagom snabbt så att folket hålls lagom nöjt.
Mycket av det man ser när man reser runt är snyggt och modernt, i
flera avseenden betydligt bättre än i Europa. Men det är inte utan att
man får känslan av en kuliss – som den vi ser i TV på julafton i Musse
Pigg på camping. Frågorna hänger sig kvar: Vad finns bakom kulissen, vad
är det vi inte förstår och därmed missar?
"FACEBOOK-FINANSIÄRER I NY START-UP Tre av Facebooks
tidigaste och profilstarkaste investerare har återförenats för att
investera i ännu ett företag bedrivet från ett universitet. Den här
gången heter företaget Clinkle och sysslar med mobila betalningar.
Summan som investeras uppgår till 25 miljoner dollar, enligt Financial
Times."
Seamless har i Avanza analys ansetts dyrt, i den analysen jag läste rekommenderade analytikern istället ett köp av DIBS som har lönsamhet och direktavkastning och lägre P/E tal. Ett resonemang i analysen var att det är svårt för små företag som Seamless att överleva internationell konkurrens från större företag, antingen finansiellt starkare konkurrenter eller storföretag inom den aktuella tekniken som man utmanar som kort-företagen etc.
Det intressanta är att Clinkle kanske skulle bli just ett sådant företag som kan slå ut Seamless, en student från Stanford som tagit examen i "Computer Science", dvs. datateknik, har startat detta företag och alltså fått finansiering från 3 tidiga finansiärer av facebook.
Frågan är när om om man som liten privatinvesterare i sverige kan få chans att investera i Clinkle? Det ser väl mörkt ut. Jämför man med Facebook så hade man velat investera långt före den dyra börsnotering som skedde. Men det är bara till att i nuläget bevaka Clinkle med flera konkurrenter till Seamless och vara vaken för möjlighet att hoppa på bra företag till bra pris inom mobila betalningar som är framtiden.
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