Spartacusinvest har kortfattat i ett blogginlägg om Yara och Kina kommenterat SIAF.
"Se till exempel Sino Agro Food
ett bolag jag efter en förfrågan tittade lite snabbt på men snabbt
tackade nej tack till. Svårtolkad balansräkning och ett icke existerande
kassaflöde gjorde inte saken svår."
"Yara är heller inte en "walk in the park". Inget inom jordbruk är det.
Som jag påtalat förut så är framtiden alltid osäker. Det finns en mängd
faktorer som är svåra att förutspå. Jag väljer dock alla dagar i veckan
hellre ett bolag som uppvisar ett positivt kassaflöde, ger relativt goda
utdelningar och har en stark balansräkning med kassa och reala
tillgångar än ett bolag som betalar
sina räkningar genom att trycka upp nya aktier, tillgångarna består av
landrättigheter och redovisade vinster består av fordringar."
Det är sant Sino Agro Food betalat räkningar genom att trycka upp aktier, den största delen av bolagets tillgångar är landsrättigheterna och kassaflödet är inget att tala om hitills.
Men det är ett företag inom uppbyggnad, som återinvesterar allt och satsar på växa snabbt. "Bära eller brista" är väl konceptet. Det kommer nog förmodligen bära men är ju givetvis högrisk innan bolaget blivit starkt kassaflödespositivt. Men har prognostiserats att SIAF kommer bli just "starkt kassaflödespositivt" till nästa år. När det inträffat kommer värderingen att bli en annan. Den försiktige avvaktar. Men man måste chansa ibland för att kunna vinna.
onsdag 24 juli 2013
Tahoe Resources production Q4 2013?
4Silver Investing News (SIN) recently had the chance to speak with Kevin McArthur, president, CEO and director of Tahoe Resources (TSX:THO5,NYSE:TAHO), about his company’s flagship Escobal project, located in Southeastern Guatemala.
In the interview below, McArthur discusses when the company plans to reach production, the benefits of operating in Guatemala and where he thinks silver prices are headed. He also discusses Tahoe’s new corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiative.
SIN: Can you start by giving our readers a brief overview of the Escobal project? Why should investors be excited about it?
Kevin McArthur (KM): The company is building the Escobal project to world standards; our goal is to build a world-class mine that we will operate responsibly. It will produce 20 million ounces of silver per year. The attributes of this deposit are such that we believe we will be leading the industry in free cash flow per share, earnings per share — eventually, our goal is to lead the industry in dividend yield also. We think we can demonstrate organic growth and also deliver community sustainability. In doing so, we’ll be able to deliver long-term shareholder value, which is basically what this business is all about.
Specifically, the deposit is set apart from silver deposits around the world for four main reasons. Number one, it’s very high grade. It’s got silver, lead7, zinc8 and gold9, but the silver itself amounts to over 350 million ounces in the measured and indicated category at over 400 grams per ton. It’s also got very wide veins, so we can put very large equipment into the underground operations and drive the unit cost down. Because of grade and width, we believe that our cash cost will be the lowest, or at least in the lower decile or quartile of cash costs for silver mines. Second, it’s got geologic prospectivity, which I touched on earlier — it continues to grow, so we believe we’ll continue to add value over time. Third, it’s in an area where there’s excellent infrastructure. That is very important in this business. We’re not 4,000 meters up in the Andes and we’re not way up in Northern Canada in Nunavut — we’re in Guatemala. There’s paved road access, we’re an hour and a half from the capital city of Guatemala, there’s water, there’s power and there’s a nearby community, so we don’t have to establish a camp to live in. As I mentioned, the elevation is moderate. We’ve got a management team there on the ground. Most importantly, the mine is almost complete. We’re just starting our commissioning activities now and we expect to be in production — at least early production — in the fourth quarter of this year, with revenues exceeding costs by next year. We’ll have that, we hope, on a sustainable basis. This will be a fabulous mine.
SIN: It sounds like you’re moving quickly toward commercial production. What are the things that need to happen before you get there?
KM: A lot of those things have been done. We’ve derisked the project to a great extent and we understand the deposit. The biggest hurdles we had were getting our permits on a timely basis, but we’ve received all of our permits and established all of our derisking milestones according to the schedule that we posted in 2010. So we’ve been hitting our timelines nicely.
The construction of the mill and underground development of course is usually a horse race. We had a real advantage in that we were permitted for underground development back in February 2011, so we were able to drive 5×6-meter declines into the mining areas at a very early stage. Infrastructure and mill construction has gone on since 2011. We’re currently ready with the mine, and we’re very close to mill completion — as I said, we have now started the mill commissioning activities.
Our next challenge will be those commissioning activities, getting the mill up and running in time to hit our goal of full-scale production early next year. We’ve done the derisking along the way and basically completed all of the technical work, so we feel pretty good about it.
10
Fine ore bins.
SIN: The Guatemalan government recently announced a two-year moratorium on granting new mining and exploration licenses. My understanding is that Escobal will be unaffected, but your press release11 on the topic says you’ll be pulling back on some “regional work.” Can you talk about that situation a bit?
KM: First of all, it’s only a proposal for a two-year moratorium. The president proposed that Congress approve it. The reason is so that the Energy and Mines Ministry can devote its time to working with Congress on a revision to the mining law. This is a revision that’s been contemplated for some time. They’re considering approving the royalty that we’re already committed to paying through our agreement with the president — our royalty on the minerals we produce is 4 percent plus an additional one percent to outlying communities. The revision is also aimed at encouraging community participation in the approval of mining projects and for assurances on the closure of mines. So there are a variety of things that are being looked at under the new mining law.
The two-year moratorium hasn’t been approved yet, but we think that it will be. Essentially, the Energy and Mines Ministry is not processing new applications at this point. But as you stated, we are not affected by it because we have licenses in and around our property where we can do exploration that we would anticipate will grow the resource over time and will add to mine life. But we have a 2,000-square-kilometer area where we have regional concessions, some of which haven’t been approved yet, that we’re not going to able to do work on until we have approval. So we’ll have to halt our plan to commence regional work until the situation gets resolved.
SIN: Leaving aside the moratorium, what would you say are the advantages/disadvantages of working in Guatemala?
KM: There are some great advantages. First of all, you’ve got to go where the precious metals are, and Guatemala has very good geology and a very good business environment for mines. I think Guatemala is a little bit misunderstood in terms of the business environment, but it’s a very positive place to do business. As I said, we received our permits and have received positive support from the government in permitting the mine and also great support from the business community in establishing this brand new company in a very short period of time. So there are very solid advantages to Guatemala on the business end.
It’s also a fully-functioing democracy. There were 30 years of civil war that ended in the ‘90s, and since then there’s been a good democratic government in place with peaceful transfer of power to a new president and congress every four years. The democracy in Guatemala works very well. As I said, I believe because of the noise that comes out of Guatemala it’s misunderstood, but we have found it to be a very good place to operate.
12
Crusher.
SIN: Ira [vice president investor relations at Tahoe] mentioned that your focus is on long-term share price appreciation, and it looks like things are going well so far. With many companies struggling, how do you account for your success? Is there a particular strategy you’re living by in these markets?
KM: We look to be a high-grade silver miner with underground mines and intend to continue growing the company with that kind of profile. A lot of us on the team worked for Glamis Gold — I was the CEO — where we delivered shareholder value by looking for assets that were unusual in terms of all of the attributes I’ve described Escobal as having. We were always looking for a 15-percent hurdle rate on any business propositions we made, including acquisitions and mine expansions, and we didn’t use our stock to buy assets unless we got an adequate rate of return. During Glamis’ years from 1999 to 2006, we built five mines, and our share price moved dramatically during that time period because we made smart decisions and always demanded a rate of return that was higher than what other companies would demand.
We have internal models for hurdle rates and the way we operate, making sure that we always balance all stakeholder issues. And when I say stakeholder, I mean shareholders, employees and communities. We feel that if we find the right balance between what shareholders need, what our employees wish and what communities require, we will be a successful operator. Finding that right balance, we feel, is key to a successful mining company.
SIN: Recently there has been some speculation that silver prices have hit bottom13 and are set to head upward. What is your opinion?
KM: Well, I’m a little bit biased here, but I came out of retirement to run this company and I felt that silver was a good metal to be associated with. There’s always supply-demand issues regarding precious metals, and the one advantage that silver has over gold is that there’s a fair amount of industrial demand that doesn’t go away. Also, the silver that goes into making products does not get recycled because it just doesn’t pay to pull the silver components out of a cell phone, for instance. Quite the opposite is true for gold. Almost all gold that has been mined historically still sits on the surface today in various forms. So I think the supply-demand dynamic for silver is very good, and because of that I think we’ll see silver prices doing well.
The thing about silver prices dropping is that it’s a curse and a blessing. The blessing comes in a funny way in that the all-in cost of sustaining mine production is higher than today’s silver price when you look at averages in this industry. Therefore, the supply-demand curve will start to be impacted over a period of time because marginal mines and mines that are not making money will have to close if the silver price stays where it is today or goes lower. So there’s a natural buffering capacity in the industry that will happen.
The reason I would speculate that silver prices will go up is for currency reasons. Gold and silver are competitors in the currency business, and compared to western currencies, gold and silver should hold up quite well and do very well considering that western currencies are being printed at a runaway pace. I don’t necessarily look at silver prices going up. The way I look at the world is that the paper money that is going to be used to purchase this silver and gold is going to be falling dramatically in value; therefore, you have to use more dollars to buy an ounce of silver, so the silver price goes up on a relative basis . If you follow that to its logical conclusion, you can see a much higher silver price in the future.
14
Ball mill.
SIN: Is there anything else you’d like to add?
KM: We have just recently started a big initiative in the company, and it relates to getting our final permit in April of this year. The initiative is on CSR. Not only do we want to become the new leader in the silver space, but we want to operate responsibly with that balance that I spoke about between all. stakeholders We’ve started a new division in the company so we have equal weight between operations, finance, exploration and now CSR. We’ve hired BSR to help guide our plans both corporately and in country. We just recently put out a press release that describes some of the things that we’re doing in our CSR programs. I want to highlight that as something we strongly believe in. We will have more news on the initiative going forward.
SIN: Thank you very much for speaking with me today.
onsdag 17 juli 2013
Have Silver Prices Finally Hit Bottom?
Survey: Have Silver Prices Finally Hit Bottom?
Last week, Silver Investing News took a look at commentary from John Whitefoot, author and editor at Daily Gains Letter, and Sprott’s Thoughts’ David Franklin and David Baker, identifying two reasons that silver prices could be set to rise. Now, as silver prices slowly creep up the charts, market participants are wondering whether the white metal is rebounding after hitting bottom or simply enjoying a short-term boost.Here’s a look at a number of factors, identified by Market Oracle analyst Jason Hamlin and Tony Davis of Atlanta Gold & Coin Buyers, that suggest silver prices have truly bottomed out:
- Mining stocks are doing better than metals: Hamlin notes in his article that in the last week or so, “quality mining stocks” have started to perform better than the metals they represent. Put more simply, many silver miners have risen upwards of 8 percent while silver is up just 4.5 percent. Up until now, the white metal has been faring better than such stocks.
- Support may exist at $18.50: Another point covered by Hamlin is that on “four separate occasions from 2008 to 2010,” silver has encountered strong resistance at the $18 to $19 level. That is significant, he notes, because “[t]he stronger the initial resistance, the stronger the future support.” He believes that, as it has done in the past, the white metal will bounce off this level.
- JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is collecting silver: For his part, Davis points to the fact that JPMorgan “is taking physical delivery of silver bullion in upwards of 90%” of contracts being settled, a drastic increase from the usual 3 percent. While the bank could just be anticipating increased demand for physical delivery requests, it may also be gearing up for a rise in silver prices, Davis states.
While Hamlin and Davis mainly identify different things they believe point to a bottom in the silver market, the one thing they agree on is that for many miners, silver is now at or below its cost of production. As Hamlin points out, that situation is unsustainable — after all, he asks, “[h]ow many items can you buy in the marketplace at or below the cost to produce it?” The answer, of course, is not very many, a point that David Morgan made to SIN not long ago. As a result, both writers believe it won’t be long before companies start closing unprofitable mines, thereby decreasing supply and driving prices up.
A nod to the naysayers
Of course, not everyone believes that the bottom for silver prices is here. In a SilverSeek article published yesterday, Przemyslaw Radomski states that while silver moved higher last week, its “downtrend will remain in place … unless [it] can increase and hold a breakout above the $20.70 price level,” a “short-term resistance level” he says is based on intra-day highs.
As yet, the white metal has not done so, and as a result, Radomski believes that last week’s upward movement was merely a “contra-trend bounce” and the final bottom for silver is still to come.
With opinions ranged across the board it is difficult to say where the silver price will go next. Let us know what you think will happen in the survey below.
lördag 13 juli 2013
Bolagspresentation av Sino Agro Food
För den som ännu inte sett detta är det en bra videopresentation av bolaget.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYmWZ-eFUIA
En del tror att företaget är en bluff. Men jag skulle säga att hela upplägget som syns på denna organisationsbild är alldeles för rörig för ett bluffbolag. Nog för att ett bluffbolag skulle kunna uppvisa en rörig struktur, men min poäng med denna organisationsbild är att det är ett trovärdigt upplägg där företaget Sino Agro Food som finansiering förutom att emittera aktier och nu senast försöket med en Bond, använt joint ventures, sammarbeten för att finansiera de olika verksamheterna.
Nu har jag även som JF-medlem tagit del av material från Jordanfonden som varit på besök där i Kina och gått igenom företagets verksamhet. Det stärker min övertygelse om att detta inte är ett bluff-bolag, utan ett riktigt företag som drivs av en äkta driven Entreprenör, CEO Solomon Lee.
Det hade sannerligen inte varit fel om jag hade varit med på besök på plats. Jag ser fram emot fler kommande visningar av verksamheten för aktieägare och investerare. Det är ett tag sen Jordanfonden var där och mycket har hänt sedan dess. Det kanske skulle passa med en kommande visning för investerare och aktieägare igen nu till hösten i samarbete med en eventuell notering av SIAF på First North?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYmWZ-eFUIA
En del tror att företaget är en bluff. Men jag skulle säga att hela upplägget som syns på denna organisationsbild är alldeles för rörig för ett bluffbolag. Nog för att ett bluffbolag skulle kunna uppvisa en rörig struktur, men min poäng med denna organisationsbild är att det är ett trovärdigt upplägg där företaget Sino Agro Food som finansiering förutom att emittera aktier och nu senast försöket med en Bond, använt joint ventures, sammarbeten för att finansiera de olika verksamheterna.
Nu har jag även som JF-medlem tagit del av material från Jordanfonden som varit på besök där i Kina och gått igenom företagets verksamhet. Det stärker min övertygelse om att detta inte är ett bluff-bolag, utan ett riktigt företag som drivs av en äkta driven Entreprenör, CEO Solomon Lee.
Det hade sannerligen inte varit fel om jag hade varit med på besök på plats. Jag ser fram emot fler kommande visningar av verksamheten för aktieägare och investerare. Det är ett tag sen Jordanfonden var där och mycket har hänt sedan dess. Det kanske skulle passa med en kommande visning för investerare och aktieägare igen nu till hösten i samarbete med en eventuell notering av SIAF på First North?
fredag 12 juli 2013
2 Reasons Silver Prices Look Set to Rise
It’s no secret that silver has fared poorly this year. But exactly how bad is bad? Since June drew to a close, news agencies have been quick to report the extent of the damage: the white metal has fallen 35 percent in the first six months of 2013 and is set to record its worst performance in three decades.
Disheartening though that number may be, some market participants believe that a turnaround is coming. Here’s a look at why John Whitefoot, author and editor at Daily Gains Letter, and Sprott’s Thoughts’ David Franklin and David Baker believe that silver is gearing up for gains.
Economic uncertainty could buoy prices
In a recent commentary, Whitefoot notes that although this year was supposed to be “the year that silver regained its luster,” climbing either as a hedge against inflation and a devalued dollar or on the back of industrial demand, “strangely” that has not happened.
However, Whitefoot believes that all is by no means lost, stating that for contrarian investors — those who attempt to profit by investing in ways that go against conventional wisdom — “silver has never lost its shine — its role as a safe haven hasn’t really changed.” Elaborating on that idea, he explains that the US economy is still not particularly strong. For instance, the country’s unemployment rate sits at about 7.5 percent, first-quarter GDP growth was “well below” expectations and wages are not improving. Outside the US, Portugal is facing problems and the Chinese economy is not doing overly well.
These factors, according to Whitefoot, indicate that “all of the ingredients for a rally are still set” — and based on the fact that the US Mint has sold 43.9 percent more Silver Eagles in the first half of 2013 compared to the same period last year, he believes average American investors can see that.
He concludes his piece with the statement that “as long as the global economy remains uncertain and central banks continue to print more and more money, silver will continue to be in demand as a store of value.”
Commercial traders going long on silver
Taking a different approach, in a Sprott’s Thoughts note published yesterday, Franklin and Baker point out that hope for silver prices can be drawn from the fact that collectively, commercial traders — in other words, large banks — have reduced their short positions from 259 million ounces in February 2013 to just 20 million ounces as of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report released June 25. That reduction “represents the cumulative purchase of approximately 240 million ounces of ‘long’ silver contracts.”
That is significant, say the writers, because commercial traders have “traditionally held significantly large ‘short’ positions,” meaning that they are “either hedging an existing silver position or betting that silver will depreciate.” A shift away from short positions toward long positions could mean that such traders are now preparing for a “bullish silver reversal.” Franklin and Baker believe that this idea is further supported by the fact that commercial traders have also reduced their net short gold positions.
Like Whitefoot, Franklin and Baker end their writeup by suggesting that these changes in positioning may indicate that silver prices are set to hit bottom and turn around.
The upshot
Though silver has been the underdog so far this year, there are at least two reasons that may be about to change. Those interested in the white metal should consider keeping an eye on future COT reports as well as economic conditions.
Silver Price Rallies to Six-week High
The silver market is still very much influenced by speculation as to when the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will pull the plug on the current round of quantitative easing (QE), as is evidenced by this week’s price action.
Early in the week, silver tracked gold higher on short covering and safe-haven demand sparked by political upheaval in Egypt, closing back up four pennies over $19 an ounce Monday. That moderate upswing continued Tuesday as inflation news out of China lent further support to gold and silver despite a stronger US dollar, pushing silver up to $19.12 an ounce.
This week’s rally really picked up momentum mid-week after the release of minutes from Wednesday’s US FOMC meeting, Bloomberg reported. Precious metals bulls gained strength from FOMC members stating that they want to wait for more positive economic signals before axing bond buying. A slight loss in the US dollar, in addition to higher oil prices, was also bullish for silver, which closed Wednesday at $19.37 an ounce.
Silver’s much-awaited rally continued for a fourth straight session Thursday, the metal’s longest rally since March 8, according to Bloomberg. The precious metals markets were bolstered by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s call for a “[h]ighly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future” from the US central bank in order to spur economic growth. Silver hit a six-week high for a Thursday close of $19.965 an ounce.
Company news
Coeur Mining (TSX:CDM,NYSE:CDE) released results from the preliminary economic assessment completed on its La Preciosa silver-gold project in Durango, Mexico. The mine is expected to produce an estimated 134.5 million ounces of silver over a mine life of 17 years, making La Preciosa potentially one of the top 10 primary silver mines in the world. The mine is expected to generate a 17-percent after-tax internal rate of return based on $25 per silver ounce and $1,500 per gold ounce.
First Majestic Silver (TSX:FR,NYSE:AG) announced that total Q2 production at its five Mexican silver mines increased 55 percent over the same period last year for a record 34,268,117 equivalent ounces of silver. The producer also has said it will cut 10 percent of its workforce this year, reported Reuters, due to slumping silver prices. The company has already canceled drilling contacts and suspended silver sales.
Great Panther Silver (TSX:GPR,NYSEMKT:GPL) reported Q2 production from its Guanajuato and Topia mines in Mexico. Metal production rose 22 percent over the same period last year, to 680,212 silver equivalent ounces. The company attributes the increase to improved grades and operational efficiency. Great Panther’s management is confident the company remains on track to meet its fiscal 2013 production guidance of 2.4 to 2.5 million silver equivalent ounces.
Q2 production figures for Fortuna Silver Mines‘ (TSX:FVI,NYSE:FSM) San Jose mine in Mexico and the Caylloma mine in Peru show a total of 1,074,007 ounces of silver and 5,183 ounces of gold. So far this year, production at the two mines has totaled 2,066,225 ounces of silver and 9,675 ounces of gold. The silver producer is on target to meet its 2013 production guidance of 5.9 million ounces of silver equivalent.
Endeavour Silver (TSX:EDR,NYSE:EXK) announced record-breaking second-quarter silver and gold production. Compared to the same quarter last year, second-quarter silver production for 2013 rose 48 percent, to 1,535,873 ounces, while gold was up 159 percent, to 19,914 ounces. Revenues for the quarter were also up 57 percent, to US$63.5 million. The company attributes its stellar production numbers to successful operations at the Bolanitos mine, whose output peaked at 3,000 metric tons per day.
Junior company news
Entourage Metals (TSXV:EMT) commenced exploration work at its La Liga silver project in the Yukon Territory, Canada. The program is focused on high-grade silver plus lead-zinc mineralization at the Red Devil and Galactose zones and will involve detailed geologic mapping, prospecting and mechanical trenching.
Apogee Silver (TSXV:APE) reported that a development and sampling program at its Pulacayo project in Bolivia has exposed a vein with an average grade of 868 g/t silver over a 97-meter strike length and average width of 0.61 meters. The company is seeking financial partners in the construction of a Phase I mine and mill complex at Pulacayo; it is designed to produce 2.5 million silver equivalent ounces per year.
Skagen förvaltare ser köpläge
"Kriser skapar köplägen"
Publicerad 2013-07-12 11:35:00
| Foto: Skagen |
Krönika
Inte sedan finanskrisen 2008 har flykten från
tillväxtmarknaderna varit så stor som nu. Nu kan det löna sig att gå mot
strömmen och att köpa impopulära och undervärderade företag, skriver
Skagen Kon-Tikis förvaltare Kristoffer Stensrud i en gästkrönika
Svenska investerare med pengar placerade i den del av världen som står för nästan all ekonomisk tillväxt kan konstatera att årets första sex månader har åsamkat dem en förlust på 6,6 procent (SKAGEN Kon-Tiki har i jämförelse backat 1,2 procent). De som istället satsat på aktiemarknader i de länder som står för en mycket mindre del av den ekonomiska tillväxten i världen, i utvecklade länder, har kunnat glädja sig över en förträfflig avkastning på 10,2 procent.
Stor rabatt i tillväxtmarknader
Prissättningen av bolag i tillväxtmarknader ligger nu långt under det historiska genomsnittet baserat på både löpande intjäning och bokfört eget kapital. Jämfört med utvecklade marknader har inte rabatten, eller riskpremien om man så vill, varit större på åtta år.
Investerarnas fokus har på nytt riktats mot en möjlig kreditkris och svagare ekonomisk tillväxt i Kina, nedslående ekonomiska nyckeltal, indikatorer och prognoser från i stort sett alla tillväxtländer. På toppen av detta kommer oro och ett ökande missnöje med den politiska styrningen hos den snabbt växande medelklassen i flera tillväxtländer. Detta har vi själva kunnat beskåda på TV i form av utagerande vanliga människor, som du och jag, i länder som Turkiet, Brasilien och inte minst i Egypten, där demokratiseringen efter valet inte ledde till nödvändiga politiska reformer.
Förra året vid den här tiden var det den ihärdiga eurokrisen och en svag amerikansk ekonomi som präglade nyhetsbilden. Mycket har förändrats sedan dess. Det mesta till det bättre. Bostads- och arbetsmarknaden i USA, själva livsnerven i den amerikanska ekonomin, har återhämtat sig snabbare än vad de största optimisterna hade kunnat tänka sig.
Gröna skott i Europa
I Europa har de första gröna skotten kommit. Konstigt nog först i Sydeuropa där optimismen börjar öka. I alla fall om man ska tro de senaste PMI-undersökningarna som visar att inköpscheferna i företagen nu ser ljusare på tillvaron igen.
Kostnadsnedskärningar, inte minst i form av relativt lägre löner de senaste åren, har lett till en på vissa håll kraftig produktivitetsökning.
Svag inhemsk efterfrågan i både USA och Europa har fått företagen att satsa utomlands med ökande marknadsandelar inom vissa sektorer som resultat. Ökad tillväxt och bättre tider även på hemmaplan har lett till höjda förväntningar på att företagen ska leverera bättre resultat. I tillväxtmarknaderna är situationen annorlunda. Många år med hög tillväxt har lett till att kostnaderna har skjutit i höjden medan produktiviteten har gått motsatt väg. Utförsbacken har även synts i analytikernas vinstprognoser för bolagen.
Råvaruboomen död och begraven
Men dagens vinstprognoser bygger för mycket på en råvaruboom många förväntade sig 2010 men som nu är död och begraven. Alltför stora investeringar i ny kapacitet, minskad efterfrågan och giriga regeringar, som vill säkra att ”jordräntan” går till samhället istället för globala kapitalister är ansvariga för likvideringen.
Mixen av en svag makroekonomi, social oro och misskötsel av många bolag i tillväxtmarknader är giftig. Den medför att andra investeringsområden ser väsentligt mer attraktiva ut.
De senast årens utveckling i världsekonomin gör att tillämpningen av vår investeringsfilosofi, som har gett bra resultat det senaste decenniet, måste ändras lite. Mindre vikt måste läggas på generell ekonomisk tillväxt och mer på de enskilda företagens utveckling, var de än befinner sig i världen.
Privata företag som trots kriser eller pressade situationer kan skapa värden och bygga varumärken från en lokal position är intressanta. Företag som är beroende av sociala koncessioner är ointressanta. Bolag som ger befolkningen en högre levnadsstandard, bättre kontroll över sina liv och god information håller vi dock våra ögon och öron öppna för.
Kriser skapar köplägen
Avslutningsvis, för de som har intrycket av att vi har blivit domedagsprofeter och talar emot oss själva: den senaste tidens generella utförsäljning av aktier i tillväxtmarknader, där de flesta bolagen konkurrerar på en global arena, skapar köplägen. Att gå mot strömmen och att köpa impopulära och undervärderade företag kan på kort sikt se ut som dåliga investeringar. På lång sikt har vi emellertid bra erfarenheter, från både Asien- och Ryssland-krisen under 1998, av att liknande situationer kan skapa mycket bra långsiktiga värden för aktieägarna.
Kristoffer Stensrud
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